2024: Year of the Greek Stock Exchange

Written by the Apostle Menthos

The title was not written to be written. There is a strong rising wave of positive youth who are able in 2024 to give a leadership role to the Greek Stock Exchange after fifteen difficult years against the backdrop of the global economy. It is very good news for the Greek economy, as analysts estimate that in 2024 the country’s GDP will reach €233.8 billion, bringing the impressive reduction in debt as a percentage of GDP to 152% and exceeding the historical highs of €232 billion recorded in 2008 until the great desire of the Greek Stock Exchange to return to developed markets was fulfilled, which opened the door wide to the influx of powerful investment funds from giant funds that until now could not even look at us due to their investment grade. This wave of positive news will have a ripple effect on the market, as the Greek economy will have officially reached 2008 levels, that is, before the outbreak of the financial crisis, but the stock market and the general index in general have lagged far behind. They have to go a long way in prices before they can finally keep up with the new data.

Through the long-term graphical analysis shown through the semi-monthly chart, we see that the general index achieved the highest permitted and technically corrected prices in the months of September and October after a broad upward movement of +74% from its lowest levels in July 2022, from 778 units. In order to continue, the passage of the general index within the fluctuation range from 1,352 to 1,400 units requires great attention. If the index does not meet certain resistance by breaking through the ground that has been trodden since the spring of 2011, in 2024 we should expect it to rise towards the level of 1540 units or +22% from current price levels. But the important point is that between the level of 1352 and 1725 units there is no fixed resistance point based on the chart analysis. All of these territories of 373 units are free of resistance being the area in which the General Index attempted to settle during the period from May 2010 to April 2011 after the announcement of resort to the support mechanism on April 23, 2010 by Prime Minister George A. Papandreou in Kastellorizo. For historical purposes, I should mention that at the beginning of this period and more specifically on 8 May 2010, Greece’s request for a “loan facility” of €80 billion from the remaining 15 euro countries and €30 billion from the IMF was accepted. Approved (International Monetary Fund). Along with our approval came three attached memos. So this range of divergence may form a basis for buyers to cross bullishly by 1,725 ​​units, freeing the market from visual constraints to start seeing 2,000 units probably at the end of 2025. However, the highest level recorded by the index in 2009 was at 2,932 points, i.e. A difference of +130% from its current level of 1275 points.

In the FTSE/ASE Large Cap Index, we will deal with short-term daily chart analysis since due to the significant “change” in the banking sector, the numbers in the region corresponding to 2009 were reduced to 15,780 units, which is of course outside the logical context of the discussion. So here we see that the indicator has crossed the downtrend line “W” upwards at 3070 units and is now heading towards the next resistance area of ​​3180 to 3220 units. Above that, the way will be opened for new highs, surpassing the previous levels of 3,280 units. The point of change in the upward trend is 3050 units.

We move to the banking index as we hope it has crossed the 2-day price chart within the resistance zone of 1045 to 1080 units. A bullish crossover above 1,080 units with increased trading volume would signal the upcoming recording of new highs above 1,118 units written at the end of last July. The next resistance area is located at 1,240 points or +15% of current price levels. It is the level where two very strong local peaks were observed in May 2016 and December 2015. It is the opposite of the current short-term trend with a downward breakout of 1010 points.

Close with the FTSE/ASE Mid Cap indicator as it appears on the long-term monthly chart creating a trigger point for buyers above the 2000 mark. This expanded base of around 300 units is able to put the index on a new strong upward trajectory, setting as a next target a pass above the 2800 units or +32% from 2100 to 2150 units that are trading now. The corresponding rise with 2932 units recorded by the general index in 2009 is…3252 units.

* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis and investment strategy

* Copied from “Kevalayo” newspaper.