Liz’s lesson and Erdogan’s chance…

Written by Kostas Stupas

1) Liz lesson and Erdogan’s chance…

The older generations said that generations that have not experienced war are more likely to experience war. The same is true for generations that have not experienced an inflationary storm and a major financial crisis.

A few weeks ago, the new UK Prime Minister, Liz Truss, on taking office, announced, through her ministry, a massive program of tax cuts without announcing the corresponding cuts in spending. Markets reacted negatively immediately, bonds rose and the British pound fell to historic lows…

The UK Prime Minister had to roll back the tax cuts by firing the Chancellor of the Exchequer, while the Bank of England went to the markets and bought bonds like the old days of quantitative easing, pre-inflation…

The “storm” in the markets subsided and the British pound settled above its historic lows against the dollar. United kingdom. Who led a few decades ago an empire on the planet, so extensive that the sun always shined on one part of it, in the past six months he changed 5-6 finance ministers and two prime ministers …

The scene that happened in the last few weeks in the UK needs attention because it is very likely to resemble a scene that all advanced economies will have to repeat in a few months time.

This is for the following reasons:

In recent months we have seen a strong return to inflation. It is no coincidence that the escalation of inflation occurred two years after the first cover announced his death…

Central banks as rookie magicians keep raising interest rates because everyone reads textbooks on how Fed Chairman Paul Volcker in the late 1970s managed to control inflation…

However, in the early 1980s, public and private debt in most Western economies was non-existent. Andreas Papandreou, for example. In 1982 it received about 25% of GDP.

Today, Greece’s public debt is about 200% of GDP, while more than 100 billion euros have been written off with the famous PSI. If we add private debt, the total exceeds 300% of GDP despite the “settlement” in recent years of “red loans” by about 100 billion euros.

However, Greece, since most of its debt has been in the hands of “institutions” with a fixed and low rate of interest for many years, is in a relatively better position … while it is in a favorable position that it can be “trawlers” that do not carry fuel and ammunition , but tied between “three-masted frigates” laden with inflammable materials…

Total public and private sector debt in the US, for example. It amounts to 290% of GDP. In France, this percentage exceeds 370% of GDP and in most major Western economies it is more than 250% of GDP.

It was only during times of war that religion reached these levels. These are the “frigates” that are connected by a Greek “fishing ship” and if they catch fire, there will be no exceptions …

Higher interest rates in order to tame inflation increases the cost of debt servicing and it is only a matter of time, perhaps weeks, before the first bankruptcies are heard and the economy falls into recession…

The system due to high debt is so unstable that it cannot withstand regular and necessary temporary recessions and is constantly threatened by the dominoes of uncontrollable meltdowns like the year 2008.

Just as central bankers were unable to predict the scale of inflation last year, they are now unable to predict the extent of an impending recession. As happened with inflation, when they realize it they will react with panic…

So (somewhere in 2023) central banks will be forced to do what the Bank of England (BoE) did, and they will go out and buy any bonds and stocks that are not being bought in the markets…

Inflation will return sharper and stock, gold and commodity prices will rise amid nervous turmoil…

Just as Liz Truss was forced to resign yesterday, so too will other governments not withstand economic and political turmoil.

Power vacuums will inevitably arise and thus agitational powers such as Russia, Turkey, and China in northern Europe, the Aegean, and Taiwan are likely to try to capitalize…

Of course, if authoritarian regimes do not collapse without the relief valves that governed them before. But at such times, the emergence of an external danger relieves internal pressures.

Note A few years earlier, supporters of Brexit dreamed that they would transform the UK through competitive tax policies. In Singapore on the border of the European Union. who would absorb it. After a few years, the UK tends to develop into the next whirlwind global crisis.

2) Digital business card…

hi kostas,

I’ve been a columnist in DC for nearly twenty years. For the past few years, I’ve been earning a living as a director of an American multinational technology company.

The reason I am writing to you is the paranoia – which I hope we magically avoid – of the digital business card.

In short, the new law will require all employees to be categorized as they enter and leave the workplace, within a strictly defined time frame that is determined based on the employee’s schedule (employees) and company operations, with a few exceptions (the managers).

In the case of those who work from home, an interview process will take place through an online service where the employee will scan a QR code with the application.

However, the problem is that while this system may be applicable in a workplace where worker schedules show homogeneity, it is practically impossible to implement for multinational companies in the technology/ICT field.

For example, when you have hundreds of people collaborating on a project with work groups based in America, there should be flexibility in adjusting their schedules for the duration of the project (eg there is often someone working with a California-based team on some projects , instead of 09:00 – 17:00 to continue 12:00 – 20:00). Such changes are not always imposed by companies (at least not for us), but arise organically from needs – which are constantly changing – always in cooperation with people in other countries (some Californians start their jobs in a row at 7:00).

Another typical example where the law is practically unenforceable is the case of third-party (B2B) sellers, who spend most of the day with customers. In order to get their exit ticket, they should prioritize getting back to the office on time rather than using their time as productively and comfortably as possible for them.

The application of the business card in the manner prescribed in practice forces us to either legalize or stop our activity (and planned expansion) in Greece.

At a time when competition for human resources from companies located abroad, without any presence in Greece providing jobs for workers with contractor status (Blockaki – IKE) is relentless, the government is trying to solve the problem (employers who work arbitrarily with workers ) goes to create a bigger one – to destroy many good jobs – in his area hurts his hand – cuts off his hand.

The question is reasonable: Do legislators in the Ministry of Labor have the slightest connection to the market?

Greetings,

n

Note any post I would like to be anonymous.

[email protected]