What does the undecided vote | Liberal.gr

On the way to the elections, polls are gaining more and more attention. And the most interesting conclusions come not from the quantitative data, but from the qualitative data of surveys full of gray areas.

Gray area mysteries abound, while the percentage of undecided moves steadily to 10%-12% Across all surveys, which means we’re now in one “hard core”.

Do we know how these people think? I’m very afraid not. Yes, we might suspect some trends. But it is questionable whether the pollsters know what they really believe.

This is shown by the answers we get to questions like “Which two major parties do you oscillate between?” the Depending on which party is closest to you. In the first question about 45% – 50% Does not answer while per second up this percentage 70%-75%.

The origin of the party

It is somewhat easier to determine the origin of his party.

According to its latest research opinion pollwith 10.2% undecided, the 22.6% Who these come from Abbreviation IIthe 18.5% from Syrizathe 6.1% from PASOKthe 2.9% from Kthe 4.3% from Day 25while the 5.8% I voted for another party.

In the previous election, A.J 12.1%They either abstained from voting or did not vote because of age and 17.2% You never answered the question “what did you vote for”.

What stands out for the first two parties, from which the largest percentage of undecided seems to come, is that 2.7% Vote in 2019 for ND and 1.9% Syriza. The same applies if we want to see age distribution, self-determination, and so on.

What expresses you best?

The real difficulty lies in investigating their current political orientations and choices. This question can only be answered by their answers to other basic and politically crucial questions.

In an OPINION POLL search it appears, for example, that only this 23.6% Of those who are indecisive declare their complete satisfaction to some extent with the work of the government, when the degree of satisfaction in the entire sample of participants reaches 37.9% (i.e. the percentage in the tagged 14.3% minimum).

At the same time, only 12.5% He believes that things would be better if we had the Syriza government these years, when the positive answer is in the entire sample 20% (7.5% lower), negative 36.8%while the average shifts to 48.3%. As for the opinion “it will be the same,” he adopted it 42.8%.

At the same time, the undecided would prefer an independent government Abbreviation II in percentage only 16.3% And the government is dead Abbreviation II Percentage only 9.8%. one party government Syriza He just prefers it 2.2% And the cabinet with a trunk Syriza just one 12%.

In short, the government with Abbreviation II choose it 26.1% (When the corresponding percentage is in the entire sample 42.2%) against 14.2% who chooses the government with Syriza (When this opinion is expressed by 25.1% in all respondents).

On the contrary, the preference for the undecided collects high percentages ecumenical or other government which cumulatively specifies a file 41.3%.

But the following results are of more interest. To the question about the most suitable prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis It combines undecided 30.8% against 19.3% of Alexis Tsipras (altogether, the respective percentages vary at 45.6% against 24.7%).

What is the first preference of the hesitant? the “no one». choose it 45.7%when this option is collected in the entire sample only 26.9%.

Anti-systemic solutions

What do the above results show us? A core of citizens wary of both major parties, with much stronger disapproval tendencies.

When both major parties, which are clearly regulars, are fiercely contested by the undecided, among whom 45.7% choose “none” as the most suitable for the prime minister, it is clear that a serious part of society feels “outside the walls”. He feels that no one is expressing it.

It is a definition of the danger of seeking anti-regime solutions, especially when, with the exception of the two major parties, even minor parties do not seem to cross this “gray” polling area.

If everyone falls under the “system”, what is the solution for this group? Is chastity? Is it looking for extreme sounds from the right of the ND and from the far left?

Only speculations can be made, and even data on the income situation and the ideology of the undecided is not sure that it will help.

According to its latest research ALCOFrom an economic point of view, it is 57% Of the undecided comes from those who get paid up to 1500 euros. In ideological terms, the 8% identify themselves as right-wingers, 12% As center right, 21% center, 14% center left, 3% left and 34% answered that they are not.

Regarding the criteria by which the undecided will vote, there are some minor adjustments in relation to the entire sample, without changing the big picture.

They are in the lead, economics at 36.7%, accuracy at 24.1%, national issues at 18.2% and leader/suitable for prime minister at 10.2%. But in their assessment, other issues have an enhanced role, such as the performance of institutions (19%), management of public funds (8.8%), crime/delinquency (8%), candidates (6.8%), and ideological identity. (6%). It should be noted, as in the entire sample, as well as among the undecided, that the issue of wiretapping as a voting / criterion factor was mentioned by only 2.5%.

In conclusion one difficult audience As a whole, to restless citizens who are not easy to convince, as none of the proposed solutions excite them. The possibility for the parties to engage with them is not easy, the space is hardly definable politically and in part it is intense Rejecting and anti-systemic impulses.

Claiming their votes is a very difficult task and it is not inconceivable that these citizens (those who decide to go to the polls) choose which party to vote for, at the last moment.

In any case, whether we like it or not, anti-regime dangers lurk in this great reservoir. Even if he does not express himself very strongly in the upcoming polls, the danger will still be there.

* Zacharias Zubis is the poll’s research director