Analysis: Nuclear weapons form the basis of Japan’s massive missile program

Tokyo is spending heavily on new missiles that may be equipped with nuclear warheads to deter China and North Korea.

Japan plans to develop a powerful missile arsenal that can take advantage of its latent nuclear capabilities, a strategic escalation of peaceful power that will put it on a faster collision course with China (pictured Twitter, above, missile launch from a Japanese warship).

Four decades

This month, Maritime news It reported that the Japanese Ministry of Defense signed four contracts with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to design and build long-range (confrontational) missiles to target China and North Korea, including a $1.29 billion contract to modernize the mass production of Type 12 anti-ship missiles (SSM).

The contracts also include $200 million for development of the Type 12 SSM (land, air, and ship launched versions), $891.8 million for mass production of the Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectile (HVGP) vehicle, and $436 million for development of the launched submarine. guided missiles (video, below);

The report indicates that production will start this year for the ground-developed SSM-12, which will enter service in 2026, with successive upgrades that increase its range from 200 to 900, and eventually 1,500 kilometers.

Japan also has two planned hypersonic weapon designs. He wrote in his analysis that the Japanese HVGP Block 1, which is expected to start production this year, has a range of 500 to 900 kilometers, with two missiles mounted on the launch vehicle. Hey Gabriel Honrada.

Submarine with VLS systems

Blocks 2a and 2b of the design are expected to have a very large fuselage, with a range of 2,000 km for the former and 3,000 km or more for the latter. The Block 1, Block 2A and 2B missiles are scheduled to be developed from 2023 to 2027 and from 2023 to 2030, respectively.

In terms of operational use, Naval News reports that Block 1 will be operated by the “HVGP Battalion” on Kyushu Island. Instead, Blocks 2A and 2B of the “Long-Range Guided Missile Units” will operate on the northern island of Hokkaido.

It also indicates that a long-range version of the Type 12 SSM, which is launched from a submarine, will be developed between 2023 and 2027, along with a new submarine equipped with vertical launch systems (VLS) for larger missiles.

The Asia Times noted in January 2023 that Japan’s investment in long-range missiles is likely due to the limitations of its air power in the face of China’s recent advances, with the strategic hope that its expanded missile arsenal will offset the limits of its long-range air power. The extent of the strike.

strategic reasoning

In terms of the number of fighters, China had 2,250 combat aircraft in 2021, 800 of which are of the fourth generation. In contrast, Japan has only 244 fighters as of this year.

China’s fifth generation J-20 is still in production, and while Japan may buy more F-35s to compete with China’s J-20, the high cost of the F-35 may limit the number of aircraft that will eventually be purchased.

With Japan having a limited number of fighters, the use of long-range missiles for strike missions by traditionally manned aircraft could make strategic sense.

This approach would cause Japan to use its limited fighters not only to attack the most sensitive targets, but also for air defense.

Submarine missile launch (illustration courtesy of the Japanese Ministry of Defense)

Therefore, Japan would likely need a large arsenal of long-range missiles to deter China and North Korea. Maximum independence from foreign manufacturers and huge reserves would also be required to maintain a high rate of fire.

Useless without nuclear weapons

However, developing a strategic deterrence program based on long-range missiles may become useless without the ability to carry nuclear warheads.

In addition to making up for shortfalls in fighter numbers, Japan may seek to develop pre-emptive strike capabilities against China and North Korea’s hypersonic missile and weapons launches.

Difficulties with conventional missile defense systems such as the Aegis and Patriot against high-trajectory attacks may have prompted Japan to plan to neutralize adversaries’ missile launch and storage facilities before launching an attack.

Keeping such facilities at risk increases the cost of a Chinese or North Korean attack on Japan, enhances deterrence, and reduces coercion efforts.

However, with multiple types of long-range missiles in possession, Japan must determine the operational parameters of its missile forces and whether to rely, in real time, on US targeting capabilities as it currently lacks adequate intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities for such attacks.

High trajectory attacks

Existing missile defense systems such as the Patriot and Aegis can be ineffective against high-trajectory attacks, as ballistic missiles reach very high terminal velocities, making them difficult for air defense radars to detect.

Missile defense radars may lose track of their targets because they are at the top of their trajectory, and when they re-detect them during descent, it may be too late for interceptors, which must also fly against gravity, as opposed to an always-accelerating target.

Hypersonic weapons pose a serious challenge to existing missile defense systems.

For example, Northrop Grumman reports that it can fly through the upper atmosphere to achieve longer range, operate at very high or very low altitudes, and maneuver into unpredictable flight paths that greatly increase the difficulty of interception.

HVGP missile attack (illustration by Japanese Ministry of Defense)

Therefore, a preventive strike may be one of the few effective means to enable Japan to counter these weapons. Meanwhile, missile defense technology such as electromagnetic and laser cannons and hypersonic interceptors are still under development.

domestic deterrence capabilities

In a January 2023 article, the Asia Times noted that these acquisitions could be interpreted as Japan’s move to develop domestic deterrence capabilities independent of US security guarantees.

This is because it is doubtful whether Washington will use nuclear weapons to defend Tokyo, while the stability of US security guarantees may be undermined by the quadrennial presidential elections in the United States and exposed to public opinion.

However, Japan’s missile preemptive strike capabilities may increase the factor of unpredictability and regional tensions in the Pacific. These developments will quickly highlight the evolving nuclear stalemate.

Tokyo has the resources, technology, and scientific know-how to quickly build a nuclear weapon if, for any reason, the United States refuses, or withdraws its security guarantees.

Since Japan has a complete nuclear fuel cycle and, in theory, can produce fissile material for nuclear weapons, its new missiles could easily be modified to carry nuclear warheads, potentially gaining a covert nuclear triad capability.