“Large” Ukrainian counterattack in Zaporizhia

The collapse of a dam on the Dnieper River in the Kherson region of southern Ukraine has dramatically altered the geography and topography of the front-line sector in the region. So it is expected that the clashes and the Ukrainian counterattack, which, although it seems to have started, have not been confirmed by the Ukrainian side.

However, according to Russian officials and Russian sources on social media and state media, the Ukrainian counter-offensive to recapture occupied territories from the Zaporizhia region has begun. Specifically, they talk about ground attacks on the administrative border between the Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions on June 7, and skirmishes in the west of the region:

• Russia 24 correspondent for the Russian state television channel, Andrei Rudenko, reported that Ukraine had launched a tank offensive in the direction of Zaporizhia. According to him, Russian forces repulsed the attack and that Ukraine “severely wounded many soldiers on the battlefield.”
• Accordingly, the official of the administration of the partially occupied region, Vladimir Rogov, who is supported by Russia, estimated that “there has been a large-scale offensive attempt for three days, even four” in the Zaporizhia region. He also alleged that Ukrainian forces likely used HIMARS systems on Wednesday evening to strike the city of Tokmak, the Tass news agency reported.
• In addition, Russian sources on Telegram indicated reinforcement of fire and attack positions in the Zaporizhia direction, where Ukrainian tanks attacked Moscow positions and reports of continued shelling, according to the War Translated Twitter account.
• As another military blogger put it: “We can already talk about launching the offensive, which Ukraine announced a long time ago.”
• Russia’s Storm Z unit told TASS that Ukrainian forces attempted to advance on the village of Lubkov with at least 20 soldiers, but were “pulled back” and suffered losses.

But on the part of Kiev, the news about the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive was not confirmed. Ukraine’s Minister of National Security and Defense Oleksiy Danilov said on Wednesday that Moscow’s claim that the counterattack had begun was “untrue”.

He said that Russian officials have confused Ukraine’s successes in some front-line areas with a major counter-offensive operation, and when Ukraine begins to press, “everyone will understand”.

However, analysts seem to share the assessment that the counterattack has begun. As assessed by retired general and author Mick Ryan, the Ukrainian operations taking place around Bakhmut and southern Ukraine “seemed to confirm that the time has come for a Ukrainian offensive in 2023.”

Accordingly, speaking to Newsweek, Atlantic Council fellow and former Minister of Defense of Ukraine Andrey Zagorodnyuk said that the first actions of Ukrainian forces are focused on Pakhmut, in the Dotitsk region, which they largely control. If Ukraine encircled Dotetsk, it would “deny the Russians the opportunity to use any advantages from occupying the region and preparing for its eventual recapture.”