For most reasons DrWe are not optimistic about the path of stocks, especially banks.
What will happen to the Greek stock market after Greek bank IPOs?
We’ve recently heard the false argument that because of IPOs and stock offerings, stocks are under pressure.
These are the arguments of kindergarten.
We remind you that 1.4% of Eurobank was sold at a higher price 18% to €1.80 and a valuation of 0.95 P/BV…
We remind you that UniCredit paid a premium for its shares Alpha Bank owns 211.138 million shares, or 8.97% of the capital…
20% of the Ethniki will be sold at a premium, not a discount… The Financial Stability Fund will begin the process on November 17, which will be completed in mid-December 2023.
All banks are dominated by bonuses, not discounts, but let’s look at the case of Eurobank, which shows good profitability, it will give a dividend of 0.10 euros per share and make foreign earnings of 450-500 million, which is an almost perfect balance sheet.
The stock price is €1.50 and the stock has not reached its purchase price 1.4% of the shares by paying 93.65 million euros to the Financial Stability Fund.
Despite the good results and despite the purchase price From the Financial Stability Fund, Eurobank’s share remains in the region of €1.50.
We have answered the wrong argument…but the question remains…what happens after the placements?
What will happen next?
For most reasons DrWe are not optimistic about the progress of stocks, especially banks.
We appeal to banks because they have a special weight in shaping the general price index on the Greek stock market.
Now the gap between Greek and European banks in terms of valuation has narrowed.
Banks as we analyzed them They will show approximately $8.3 billion in interest income in 2023… but the reality is not so…
The three-month Euribor rate of 3.98% will start to fall and the realistic Euribor rate should be set at 2.5%…
This means that interest income from 8.3 billion will decrease by about 2.5 billion to 5.8 billion euros.
Greek banks were quick to dismiss future news and all that was left were dividend yields which would then be readjusted in price.
In general, we believe that after a long period, we will witness the opening of short positions in the Greek stock market again during the coming period, and in general we will see sales…
If someone thinks that the foreigners who will be placed in the placements will bring an increase, then you laugh, the increase will be fake.
However, the factor that will hinder the decline in bank stocks is the buybacks of their shares… which the banks will initiate.
You should all consider the following.
Why, after all this large number of bank profits, upcoming profits and the strengthening of their capital… stocks do not recover?
Think logically and drop conspiracy theories.
A small example to help use the logic.
H Eurobank It currently has 7.22B tangible book funds and a market cap of 5.55B, i.e. P/BV = 0,78
unicredit It currently has 55 billion tangible book funds and a stock market capitalization of 43 billion, i.e. P/BV = 0.78…
www.bankingnews.gr
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