Dangerous spiral of precision – citizens in a state of despair

Announces, today, Elstat Data on its movement economic inflation In July, a few days after the first data published by Eurostat, which showed an “increase” in speed,

More specifically, Annual inflation in our country moved to 3% in July. It is noteworthy that in June, according to the European Statistical Authority, the rate was 2.5%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.4%. At the same time, Annual inflation in the euro area is estimated at 2.6%From 2.5% in June. It is noteworthy that based on ELSTAT data for June, the upward trend in inflation represents a marginal slowdown, as it rose by 2.3% from 2.4% in May and compared to an increase of 1.8% in June 2023.

Among the interesting points in the data provided by Eurostat are: The “speed” of the increase in service prices but also the “shock” in energy costs.

More specifically, with regard to the “fuel” driving inflation in the euro area, Services have the highest contribution.with the annual rate in July at 4.0%, compared to 4.1% in June. This was followed by food, alcohol and tobacco at 2.3%, up from 2.4% in June, energy at 1.3%, up from 0.2% in June, and non-energy manufactured goods at 0.8%, compared to 0.7% in June.

Energy

but, On the energy front, flashpoints remain active.Structural market weaknesses, weak market consolidation in Southeast Europe, higher demand due to summer, and finally higher natural gas prices due to geopolitical instability “brakes” keep the “spiral” of accuracy.

Thus, on a monthly basis it was recorded Natural gas prices rise by more than 20% To the next Dutch TTF center. On a monthly basis, the increase is more than 29% as severe geopolitical turmoil once again leads to a new rise in the European natural gas contract, which has exceeded 40 euros per megawatt hour, causing concern about the impact on energy costs but also on the Greek economy in general.

According to analysts, Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Kursk region ‘led to price hikes’ The attack was seen as a threat to the Songa metering station, a transit point and the remaining major link carrying natural gas from the Russian pipeline to the European Union, which remains heavily dependent on gas pipelines from Russia.

Certainly, this cannot go unnoticed. Wholesale costs in the energy market are kept at high levels.even if a price decline was recorded today, as is the case all over Europe. Thus, with a decrease of 9% compared to yesterday, at 120.66 EUR / MWh, the market clearing price (MTP) for the next day’s market was formed for today 9/8/2024. The highest price in the 24-hour period was 234.50 EUR / MWh, while the lowest price in the 24-hour period was 50.24 EUR / MWh. The total demand amounted to 408.83 GWh. In the energy mix, lignite 6.2%, natural gas 36.5%, hydropower 5.7%, imports 11.5%, renewables 35%. Exports 16,456 MWh and imports 23,584 MWh.

Yes, Greece remains the fourth most expensive country after Malta, Albania and Italy. With multiple prices from France (€23.79/MWh), Belgium (€38.19/MWh) and Germany (€53.32/MWh). The average price for the current month is consistently high, at €128.37/MWh.

Of course, these price levels to date are lower than the average wholesale price that was formed last July and led to the Ministry of Interior’s decision to proceed with imposing a tax on electricity generation using natural gas and supporting households with their electricity bills with a subsidy of 1.6 cents per kilowatt hour and for consumption up to 500 kilowatt hours.

geopolitics

But the “open” horizon for developments in The Middle East They leave no room for optimism. In addition, Houthi attacks on ships in the Suez Canal continue, as the crisis in the region has been ongoing for more than six months, which increases the state of uncertainty.

“The greatest concern stems from the possibility of an escalation of military conflicts with broader involvement of countries outside Israel with Iran. This is estimated to have a negative impact on the current account balance, mainly related to increased uncertainty about another regional war conflict. These are the main factors that will affect transportation options, as well as all stages of the supply chain, and will lead to an increase in freight rates.“The new imbalances in oil prices, supply chains and inflation may also be accompanied by an increase in migration flows, while further regional destabilization could have implications for tourism and foreign direct investment in our country,” stressed the President of the EBEP, Mr. Vassilis Korkidis, in his recent statements.

actually Piraeus Port records losses of 150,000 TEU The first half of the year saw a 12.5% ​​decline in cargo volumes to and from Asia, while freight rates for 40-foot containers remained at $8,000, weighing on imports and exports.

It should be noted that Shipping rates have almost doubled due to the Suez Canal crisis. Since the end of April, although it is still well below its pandemic peaks. Since last December, there has been a decline in shipping traffic in the Suez Canal, while there has been a 70% increase in traffic around the Cape of Good Hope.

For his part, Yannis Chatzitheodosiou, President of the Athens Chamber of Commerce and holder of an honorary doctorate from the University of Piraeus, speaking to T/S Sky on August 5, referring to the issue of electricity tariff increases, stressed the need to protect companies from this new burden on their operating costs, since the support announced by the government excludes the business world.

If this does not happen, stress the S.Risk of rising product prices, Especially in energy-intensive companies, which will lead to increased inflation.

Invited to comment on the new escalation in the Middle East, the head of the European Energy Agency. I stopped at and the effects on fuel prices and tourism; We also note that our country imports about 25% of products and raw materials from the Far East, with the cost of a container rising from $1,700 to $8,000 due to the forced circumnavigation of Africa.

The announcement by Apostolos Vakakis, the group’s president, is also indicative. jumbo, Which came among other things that “Delivery times have doubled and costs have skyrocketed, making it impossible to plan and service the market smoothly. While the “closure” of the Suez Canal was initially temporary, it now looks set to affect the entire year 2024 because – for now – no signs of progress can be seen.