An official at the International Monetary Fund says that the abandonment of Russian gas will greatly affect the European economy

Europe can do without Russian gas for the next six months, but then the economic impact will be severe, assures Alfred Kamer, the European director of the International Monetary Fund, who recommends a series of alternative measures such as reducing consumption to increase stocks.

“Over the next six months, Europe can live with a complete shutdown,” the head of the German International Monetary Fund said in an interview with AFP on the sidelines of the Spring Meetings in Washington.

In the summer, the needs are less and European countries can also count on their stocks. However, the official warned that reducing inventories to critical levels would put strong upward pressure on prices that have already reached record levels.

“On the other hand, if the outage continues until winter, or even longer, it will have significant (negative) effects” on the European economy, Mr. Kamer continued, noting the risk of cuts during a winter period.

Russia is the largest supplier of natural gas in Europe.

The interruption of gas imports, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is one of the options discussed within Western countries to pressure Moscow to stop hostilities. But Russia may itself decide to cut off the tap, endangering supplies in Europe.

The International Monetary Fund has estimated that a complete disruption of Russia’s gas and oil supplies could cost the EU economy 3%.

Estimating the impact is still subject to significant uncertainty as we cannot, for example, predict today whether the next winter will be long and harsh.

But in the face of the potential impact on the economy, Alfred Kamer recommends alternative emergency measures.

He admits that “no single option is likely to have a significant impact” on its own. “But accumulating many small actions will have a greater impact.”

He asserts that one of the measures is to search for alternative sources of supply, and countries have already begun to do so by resorting to Algeria or Norway.

Consumers also have an important role to play in participating in the collective effort.

Governments can raise awareness among their population through “media campaigns to reduce energy consumption”.

– expendable –

The head of the foundation insists that “the consumer can act now.” “Reducing energy consumption also makes it possible to store more gas (…) which makes it possible to mitigate the effects of possible subsequent reductions.”

To speed up their energy transmission, support could be given to the most vulnerable, he suggests.

All of these measures have a “modest” effect if they are taken independently of each other. But if we add together, there will be a cumulative effect.

Although the war in Ukraine significantly slowed growth in Europe, Alfred Kamer believes that “the recovery will not be derailed.”

“We are not experiencing a recession,” he added. The major economies of the Eurozone, with the exception of Spain, will be “weak in 2022” and a quarter or two of near-zero growth or even technical stagnation with two negative quarters cannot be ruled out.

But the International Monetary Fund expects these economies to recover in the second half of this year.

– ” Grace ” –

At the same time, the energy challenge posed by the Russian offensive, European countries are facing a refugee crisis that is eroding the budgets of some economies such as that of Poland that has taken over many Ukrainians.

The challenge is that no more than five million people who have fled the conflict can return to Ukraine to help rebuild the country.

“I am sure some of these refugees will remain in Europe,” continues Alfred Kamer. But this is not a bad thing, rather it is a “blessing from heaven” if integration works, he says, for countries facing their aging populations and labor force shortages.

“However, there shouldn’t be too many of them” as that would jeopardize Ukraine’s recovery.