Analysis: Why municipal elections scheduled for Sunday are crucial in Turkey – The importance of Istanbul

Recep Tayyip Erdogan once said that whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey.

If so, Sunday's municipal elections will be high today. With nearly 24 hours until polls open in Turkey, and an estimated 60 million citizens participating, CNBC analyzes the importance of voting.

Türkiye: Analysts say that Imamoglu's victory puts him in the race for the presidency

As reported by American media, political analysts expect that the victory of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu will make him the most prominent candidate for the Turkish presidency in 2028.

It should be noted that Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his retirement from politics.

This is the last thing Erdogan wants, having already witnessed the AKP's defeat by the CHP in the 2019 elections in Istanbul. Erdogan was so angry at the result that he called a second election, only to see İmamoğlu beat the AKP mayoral candidate by an even greater margin.

According to CNBC, the opposition's victory on Sunday could set the country in a new direction, posing a major challenge to Erdogan and the AKP, which has held power for decades.

Erdogan himself rose to prominence as mayor of Istanbul in the 1990s, before later winning the presidency. He is now lobbying hard for his party's mayoral candidate, Murat Kurum.

“Istanbul is emerging as a very important point in the political battle,” Arda Tonca, an Istanbul-based economist at PolitikYol, told CNBC.

As NATO's second-largest army and an important economic and political crossroads between East and West, Turkey has emerged as a global player in recent years, playing prominent mediation roles in conflicts such as the Ukraine-Russia war and brokering major investments and projects. Trade deals and agreements with the rich Arab Gulf countries.

“Many countries in the world are run by a cabinet, but Istanbul – bigger than many of these countries – is run by a mayor. This is strange, but it also shows how important it is to win in Istanbul,” Tonca said.

The battle for the ballot boxes in Istanbul and Ankara is drawing interest in Sunday's elections, as the opposition won in both cities in the 2019 elections.

“Turkey’s municipal elections are often a political barometer ahead of presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for 2028,” said Christine Ronzi, Middle East and North Africa analyst at RANE.

He added: “Although the programs of candidates for the municipal elections reflect local issues that affect the daily lives of Turkish citizens, the municipal elections could pave the way for the upcoming presidential elections.”

Hakan Amdas, a senior consultant at Albright Stonebridge Group, described the election as a “watershed moment, potentially reshaping the political map, influencing economic policy and determining the quality of urban life.”

He added, “The risks are high, because the results could strengthen the dominance of the Justice and Development Party or pave the way for a more pluralistic political landscape.”

The main problem of the opposition is the opposition itself

Despite years of economic turmoil, inflation rising to more than 65 percent and the Turkish lira at its weakest against the dollar, Tonga believes the long-dominated Erdogan-dominated Justice and Development Party (AKP) will win the municipal election contest.

A year ago, in May 2023, an opposition coalition was formed to oust Erdogan from the presidency, but it failed. The result was a major defeat and disappointment for the opposition, led by Imamoglu's Republican People's Party.

“Although the AKP is ruling the country very poorly and the economic conditions in Turkey are deteriorating, the AKP will be the winner again in the next elections,” Tonca said.

For her part, Ronzi describes the battle in Türkiye as ambiguous. He added that “opinion poll data for the mayoral race in Istanbul showed a close race” between the current mayors.

The opposition is now more divided than it was before, which means that votes in favor of opposition candidates may be split.

However, he said: “Polling data in some key races shows that the CHP has significant support in these municipalities. If CHP candidates win important races, they will demonstrate their ability to overcome the political divide between opposition parties.

He added that these candidates “will likely position themselves as potential presidential candidates ahead of the 2028 presidential elections because of their ability to gain popular support and unite opposition voters.”

Analysts' eyes are on Turkey's municipal elections – anticipating Erdogan's next steps after the result

Analysts are watching the election results closely to see how they will dictate Erdogan's next moves and whether the already unequal political space will become less democratic.

In its Freedom in the World 2023 report on Turkey, the non-profit Freedom House described Erdogan and his party as “increasingly authoritarian in recent years, consolidating significant power through constitutional changes and imprisonment of opponents and critics.”

The report said, “The worsening economic crisis and upcoming elections have given the government new incentives to suppress dissent and limit public discourse.”

CNBC has reached out to the Turkish presidential office for comment.

Akbas comments that the importance of Erdogan and the media party is crucial.

“The government has influence over about 90% of the media. This dominance tilts public debate in its favour, leaving the opposition struggling to communicate with voters through mainstream media,” he said, adding that Turkish laws “now allow journalists and social media users to be imprisoned for up to “Up to three years for sharing 'false' or 'misleading' information. This threatens the democratic cornerstone of information and free debate.”

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Research Program at The Washington Institute, argues that the defeat of Erdogan's party may only intensify rather than weaken these trends.

“If the president’s faction retakes Istanbul from the opposition on March 31, he may feel comfortable enough to focus on more positive legacy-building steps,” he wrote in an op-ed for the think tank. “But defeat may push Erdogan to redouble his nationalist and populist policies at home and abroad.”

Source: CNBC