Athens Stock Exchange: the catalysts for further rise

Without really understanding it, S.J The general index of the Athens Stock Exchange It has rebounded from the 1,000-point level it had fallen to on March 20, when international markets fell victim to a hitherto unwarranted panic about their health. Deutsche Bank.

From March 29th to date, its trajectory has been clearly upward and has now reached the area of ​​1100 units. We admit that we did not expect to see such a good move, nor did we expect trading activity to be so high during the meetings. holy week. In retrospect, explaining the positive movement of the Greek market seems relatively easy (the truth is that explaining the past is always easier than predicting the future).

financial performance of most of its major companies Athens Stock Exchange For 2022 it was very good and accompanied by positive reviews for their track this year. In the past few days, we have witnessed an upward revision of estimates for the trajectory of the Greek economy in 2023, by both Greek and foreign analysts and official organizations. Greek stock investors They have gradually adapted to the fact that they will have to live with their minds in the parliamentary elections and the dangers that always accompany them.

The international stock market environment has been somewhat calm and a bit pessimistic as concerns about the health of banks have largely receded on both sides of the Atlantic, although they have not completely disappeared. If we add to this some estimates of investment bank executives for a possible promotion of our country in the evening April 21 from S&Pthen we can justify the unexpected upward movement of our market for many.

The issue that interests us now is, of course, what happens next. Can the upward trend of the general index and the most important shares of the Athens Stock Exchange continue? Obviously it can, but some conditions must be met in order for this to happen. These circumstances, catalysts as they may be described, concern both the domestic affairs of our country and what is happening in the world, beginning with the recognition that Greek stock market There are currently solid foundations, which are the good progress and positive prospects for the majority of Greek companies and the Greek economy.

Judging from the international environment, it is important that there is relative calm on some critical fronts. First of all, we obviously want positive developments on the inflation side, both in the US and the Eurozone. And the sooner the signs of its decline start to show, the better for the international markets and of course our markets as well. In the United States we can say that they exist Some signs of calming down For the first time in a while, some central bank officials started talking about a pause in the process of raising interest rates.

It goes without saying that any confirmation of these indicators will also help our market. The second very important front is, of course, the issue of unrest in international banks and especially in US banks. From the statements of people in the US banking market, we understand that there is concern about the effects that the problems of many small and medium banks will have on the economy. For the markets, it is good that there are not too serious effects on the financing policy of banks, but the mild impact of banking problems on economic growth will not worry them much because it may also have a consequence of weakness. from inflation. The other front that interests us is the front corporate results Which will begin to be announced in the coming days in the United States and Western Europe.

Big negative surprises in the financial results or in the estimations of important international companies will certainly have a negative impact on the Greek stock market as well. ends from international fronts We must not forget that the Athens Stock Exchange, in general at least, is like the Greek economy, They prefer low fuel and electricity prices. Any significant rise in crude oil, gasoline and natural gas prices would certainly hurt most AX stocks.

From an internal point of view, it is somewhat clear that the continuation of the upward path of the Athens Stock Exchange and perhaps the collapse at some point from the heights recorded on March 1, near 1.1140 units, will depend on the political developments in the country in the coming period. Investors may have gradually grown accustomed to the idea of ​​- in all likelihood – electoral rivals, but that doesn’t mean they’ll look at developments calmly. The outcome of the parliamentary elections is of great interest to both Greek and international investors. They are mainly interested in not creating conditions that would create conditions for fundamental changes in the country’s economic policy.

With the end of the Easter holiday in the stock market, as public opinion polls will gradually begin to appear, the stock market will become more sensitive to the conclusions that will be drawn from it. Knowing that the majority of investors do not want to see major changes in economic policy and investment-friendly government sentiment, we suspect the market would react distinctly negatively if polls cast doubt on either of those things.

On the other hand, if the survey results do not create serious concerns about these two issues, we doubt that investors will remain in a good mood. Of course, the elections are decided by voting, not by balloting. Their result could be like the exact opposite of the climate that prevailed before them. But until then, the “alt” polls will be and play an important role in shaping the mood of investors on the Athens Stock Exchange, along with of course international developments.