Azerbaijan is preparing beans! Iran is ready to crush Baku because of the Israeli regional conflict with the “flavor” of Türkiye

Tensions between Iran and its northern neighbor Azerbaijan have been high for months, with fears of conflict growing. Parallel tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia also risk sparking another violent war in the South Caucasus, where Iran might intervene militarily on the latter’s side.

But could Baku and Tehran end up in a military confrontation with each other?

Baku closed its embassy in Tehran in January after a gunman attacked one person and wounded two others Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev blamed Iran directly for the incident.

Shortly thereafter, Baku opened an embassy in Israel in late March, to the consternation of Tehran. Even the Israeli foreign minister said that he and his Azerbaijani counterpart They agreed to form a united front against Iran. In early April, Azerbaijan expelled four Iranian diplomats, citing unspecified “provocative actions” and accusing the Iranians of using the local population for espionage.

this week, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited Azerbaijan before visiting Turkmenistan To open the first embassy of Israel in the country, just 20 kilometers from the Iranian border.

In addition to the growing diplomatic tensions, Iran is also concerned about Azerbaijan’s actions in the South Caucasus. The Nagorno-Karabakh war in September-November 2020, during which Azerbaijan seized large swathes of territory from Armenia, caught Tehran by surprise. Russia’s influence in the region has also declined since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022, While the influence of Türkiye, Azerbaijan’s closest ally, has grown significantly.

Despite efforts to reach a peace agreement and normalize relations since the 2020 war, tensions are running high between Baku and Yerevan.

In October, Iran conducted another round of major military exercises near its border with Azerbaijan, which included the construction of pontoon bridges on the Aras River. In the same month, he opened a Consulate General in Kapan, Syunik, He clearly indicates his opposition to the Zangezur Corridor, which would provide a smooth transport route between Azerbaijan and Turkey. On April 9th While hosting the Secretary of the Armenian Security CouncilIran repeated its objections to “no geographic changes” in the South Caucasus.

The red lines of Tehran

These overlapping tensions raise the possibility of a military confrontation between Iran and Azerbaijan. theAnalysts see a number of scenarios where Tehran could act aggressively against Baku.

“I think Tehran could respond more forcefully if it sees its red lines crossed.”And Emil Avdaliani, professor of international relations at the European University and researcher at Geocase in Tbilisi, Georgia, told Middle East Eye.

Iran is also problematic – Establishing a “real Turkish corridor” extending from Türkiye to Turkmenistan. Tehran is really unhappy with the shift in the balance of power north of its borders and is likely to increase its involvement in the region.Al-Abduliani said.

Mohammad Ayatollah Tambar is Assistant Professor of International Affairs at the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M UniversityHe also noted that Iran has repeatedly warned against any construction of the Zangezur corridor. “If there is no compromise and Baku tries to create this corridor using force, Iran will not be as passive as in 2020.”he told Middle East Eye. “This time you will succeed.”

Iranian leaders also believe that Aliyev has allowed Israel to use his country’s territory as a springboard against the Islamic Republic.

war scenarios

Farzin Nandimi is a defense and security analyst and fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East PolicyYou also see scenarios in which Iran could intervene militarily against Azerbaijan.

Iran appears to have a clear agenda, which is to keep its transit routes through Armenia open and safe.he told Middle East Eye. “If Azerbaijan decides to advance to Armenia to seize territory in order to control the Zangezur Corridor, Iran will most likely try to prevent this. Sending heavy troops and equipment to Armenia and along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

In this worst-case scenario, Nandimi predicts, Iran will ensure that its ground forces have air, artillery and air defense cover. However, this coverage will remain limited to Iranian forces only.

Iranian media recently speculated that Tehran might provide military aid to Yerevan in the event of a new war. Iranian officials also said that Armenia is one of the countries that has expressed interest in purchasing domestic military drones. “Any Iranian military assistance to Armenia will be limited to sending messages to Azerbaijan and Turkey.”Nadimi said. I do not think that Iran will transfer a large amount of weapons ».

While the Azerbaijani army is much smaller than the Iranian army, it possesses advanced military equipment provided by Israel and Turkey. The weapons in its current arsenal include advanced weaponry Israeli Harop (“suicide drones”), Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones, Israeli ballistic and anti-ship missiles, and advanced air defenses.

But Iran will still have a clear advantage in any confrontation. “Unless there is a major intervention by Turkey, which is highly unlikely, a limited confrontation in the Zangezur corridor between Iran and Azerbaijan will be more beneficial to Iran due to its clear geographical advantage and superior firepower.”He said.

Tabbar noted that despite its strong regional influence, Iran has avoided direct interference in countries in the region, often choosing to work through local allies and proxies. Subsequently, Iran expects to support Armenia or cooperate with local Shiite forces in Azerbaijan to confront Baku and protect its borders with Armenia.

“But of course there is always the possibility of escalation and direct participation in the conflict.”, He said. Iranian military exercises in the northwestern border region also indicated the presence of Tehran’s will and ability to respond to Baku.

Factor Israel and Turkey

Iran may hope that it can force Azerbaijan to rein in its stance as Saudi Arabia did. After years of war in Yemen and the September 2019 attack on vital Saudi oil facilities attributed to Iran, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has softened his tough stance on Tehran and finally taken steps to normalize tensions. Relations in a deal brokered by China in early March.

Likewise, in the case of Azerbaijan, Iran may try to show it President Aliyev’s dependence on Israel may prove costly to him and he is much more vulnerable than he realizes.Tabar said.

Tehran does not want Israel to use the territory of Azerbaijan against it. Baku failed to convince its southern neighbor that its relations with Israel are similar to those of Turkey – neither at Iran’s expense nor as a threat to it.

“Iran has a contentious relationship with Turkey and will try to maintain it if it starts a conflict with Azerbaijan.”Tabar said. Also, Türkiye may not seek to escalate tensions with Iran ».

However, this may not be enough to avoid a regional war. Conflicts often have unintended consequences Tensions in the South Caucasus will intensify old rivalries between Iran and Turkey.he added.