Battle for the city crown

By Turkish political scientist Erman Bakirci “Winter comes to Türkiye only when it snows in Istanbul.”

It is clear that we are in an advanced stage of the spring season, which is an exaggeration, but this observation came to indicate the importance of Istanbul On the political chessboard in Türkiye.

Let us say that in the words of Recep Tayyip Erdogan: “Istanbul is Turkey’s jewel, its treasure.” More clearly: “Whoever wins Istanbul owns all of Türkiye.”

Since the Turkish president renewed his term again by winning the 2023 presidential elections (although the opposition was almost completely united against him), he has “put” on his ticket the municipal elections in March 2024.

The reason is simple: Kamali Ekrem Imamoglu's victory in the 2019 elections and his assumption of the position of mayor of the largest city in Turkey was a “thorn” in the eye of the Turkish president. Erdogan is not accustomed to losing. And the money (along with the glory) to be played in Istanbul is a lot.

The Turkish president preferred a deep political candidacy. He chose 48-year-old Murat Kurum, an engineer from Constantinople who served Erdogan as Minister of Environment and Urban Planning from 2018 to 2023.

From the moment he did that, I accompanied him Almost everywhere in Istanbul. He was photographed with him, announced his political “deeds” and played a game changer so that the crown of the city would fall into his hands again. On the last day of the election campaign, they prayed together at Hagia Sophia.

But why is Erdogan exposed so much? On the one hand, because there are pending urban planning and architectural projects in Istanbul Great value This is something that Mayor Imamoglu did not see well. On the other hand, Erdogan knows very well that if the hugely popular Kemalist mayor wins again, he will “rise” politically so much that he might He will become his rival in the next presidential race in 2028.

One might ask, “Well, won't Erdogan consider retiring at some point?” A useful question, but the Turkish president is not one of those politicians who leave matters to their whims. It is clear that he does not want to retire (which is why) under any circumstances Until the Justice and Development Party loses the presidency.

The truth is that İmamoğlu appears to be a very dangerous opponent. Despite the war of attrition launched by Erdogan's government against him throughout his time in the municipality, the mayor maintained his popularity unchanged.

Not at the ballot box constantly precedes, In others, by a slight difference, and in others, by a greater difference. Erdogan strikes instead of exhausting him, Rather, they strengthen it. This has its explanation in a city like Istanbul which is several times more progressive than the rest of Turkey.

However, many observers remain cautious about the final outcome. Even in 2019, the AKP fought hard and, through its appeals for justice, managed to cause a repeat of the elections (in which İmamoğlu won again). He's not an opponent to be underestimated anyway.

Imamoglu knows all this well. But he also knows that another victory will force him to confront his historical responsibilities Right with the big political change in Türkiye. Erdogan, in one way or another, has been “ruling” since 2003, establishing one of the most powerful illiberal democracies in the world. If anyone can bring him home, it's Imamoglu.

It is no coincidence that the name of the city's mayor “played” in the 2023 presidential elections. However, Kemal Kilingaroglu insisted on his candidacy to the end. With the well-known and positive final results for the AKP and disappointing for the Kemalists.

But the March 31 battle is one of them A completely different battle..