Biden: Will he come back like Reagan after the debate or follow in the footsteps of Carter and Ford?

Joe Biden had a disastrous showing in the first debate against Donald Trump, which had the effect of making Democrats nervous so much that many considered changing candidates.

However, there are those who support the American president, who talk about a bad night and point to other presidents who performed poorly in the past, but were able to recover and turn things around, and eventually won re-election.

A model for how Biden will handle the age issue can be traced back to how Reagan handled it in the second debate in 1984.

“I don’t walk as easily as I used to, I don’t talk as easily as I used to, I don’t speak as fluently as I used to,” Joe Biden admitted in his first public appearance since the massacre. “I don’t talk as well as I used to,” he said, but he delivered a message of reconstruction and victory.

Obama-Reagan or Ford-Carter

The US President wants to achieve what his predecessors Barack Obama and Ronald Reagan achieved, which is to win the elections after a bad debate. So his supporters point out, “Joe can do it too.”

But as he wonders NPR maybe; Are the sizes comparable? Or is it more like incumbent presidents who failed in the first round with a rival candidate and ended up leaving office after one term? This list is longer: Gerald Ford (1976), Jimmy Carter (1980), George W. Bush (1992), and Donald Trump (2020).

The most recent comeback story is Obama, who held his first modest conference call with Republican nominee Mitt Romney in 2012, where he described his attendance as “lousy.” He then performed well in the second debate and won 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206 in the November election.

However, as NPR noted, the case that most closely resembles Biden’s and shows some similarities and parallels is Reagan’s case 40 years ago when he faced Democratic nominee Walter Montiel in Louisville.

Similarities Between Biden and Reagan

Reagan was comfortably ahead in the polls that fall, heading for re-election, even though his age (73) made him older than any previous president in history.

But his performance that night was worrying for his staff and supporters as well as for those who watched the telephone match. The polls narrowed, and the next issue of Time magazine had a chest-to-chest cover of two horses and the headline: “A Real Race?”

The Washington Post’s Lou Cannon, who covered Reagan’s political career from his early California campaigns in the 1960s through his presidency, wrote in his book “Ronald Reagan: The Role of a Lifetime” that the then US president “didn’t even have to open” the briefing book before the debate.

Cannon noted that staffers limited the document to 25 pages after first lady Nancy Reagan insisted on not “wearing out” her husband before the conference call.

In the practice debates, Cannon noted, “Reagan suddenly looked old and frail, and that is exactly what he appeared to millions of Americans the following Sunday in Louisville.”

“Fire” titles.

The Wall Street Journal ran a front-page question: “The Wellness Issue—A New Question in the Race: Is America’s Oldest President Coming Now?”

“Reagan’s debate performance raises open speculation about his ability to serve,” he added.

Age was not an issue, the accompanying article said, but the president’s “disinterested answers and occasional apparent confusion brought a new, unpredictable element to the race.” The article cited two experts who called for cognitive tests, a business consultant and a Reagan voter who said he would not nominate a sitting president to head a company, let alone the White House.

Cannon also stated in his book that there was not so much frustration with Reagan’s words as there was frustration with his appearance and behavior.

Mirror?

His summary mentions some reports that seem striking and particularly relevant to the Biden-Trump debate.

“If you read the transcript of the debate without seeing the candidates, it would be hard to understand what all the fuss was about,” Cannon said. “Both candidates exaggerated their positions and misrepresented important facts, as they often did in their campaign speeches.”

But that was not the point, Cannon concluded, because the televised candidate debates were not actually debates, but “were always personality contests.”

Meg Greenfield, a longtime Washington Post editor, called Modell the winner in Louisville, but noted that other candidates who were considered losers in the debate (Richard Nixon in 1960, Ford in 1976, Carter in 1980) “thought they had won.” In points, “missing some elements of attendance and performance.”

The ruling, handed down 40 years ago, nonetheless seemed appropriate for Biden’s position.

Today’s President of the United States of America needs to climb Calvary and climb a whole mountain compared to Reagan at that time. In 1984, the incumbent was renominated with only token opposition, as had been the case with Biden, but unlike Biden, he had a double-digit lead in polls across the country and no obvious weaknesses heading into the Louisville debate.

Biden, by contrast, has been subjected to comments about his age since the beginning of his re-election campaign. When he and his campaign pushed for an unprecedented pre-convention debate, it was seen as a sign of confidence and an attempt to marginalize the issue of age, which was seen as the primary task of an American president.

How Reagan Recovered

A pattern on this issue can be found in the way Omar Reagan was treated in the second debate.

The candidates met in Kansas City, where most of the evening was routine until one moderator, Henry Truehit of the Baltimore Sun, noted that Reagan’s staff had noticed that the president was “tired” the night of the debate in Louisville.

Noting that crises in the White House could come at any time of the day or night, Truhit asked if Reagan had any doubts that he “could function in such circumstances.”

“I will not make age an issue in this campaign,” Reagan replied with his best Hollywood glint in his eyes and a deadpan expression. “I will not exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”

The audience erupted in laughter and applause. Even Montiel, who was 56, had to laugh. The age issue had been raised in one debate and dismissed in the next. Reagan won 49 states a month later.

But there was a kind of contradiction at this moment. At the end of the discussion, each candidate made his closing statement. Reagan was well over time, and another director, NBC’s Edwin Newman, told him his time was up.

“Thank you, Ed,” said Reagan, looking relieved, and stopped.

Reagan’s diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease did not become public until several years after he left office in 1989. He died of its effects in 2004.

Differences with today

The morning after the debate in Kansas City, Reagan’s chief of staff, James A. Baker III, met for breakfast with the White House press corps and other reporters who had attended the debate at the president’s hotel.

Baker, who succeeded Reagan in 1980 and was again a key decision-maker in his re-election bid, was asked whether it was a good idea for Reagan to debate Mondale, given his lead and any concerns campaign staffers might have about his performance.

At that time, presidential debates were not just a presumption. There were none in 1964, 1968 or 1972. Reagan was the first president to accept a debate during his re-election campaign and then win a second term.

Becker thought about the question for just a moment. “I won’t say whether it was a good idea to have discussions. But I will say it was a good idea to make two.”

Right now, there’s no guarantee the Biden campaign will get a second chance. Another ABC debate is scheduled for September. But this assumes that Trump will remain the same.

He withdrew from the primary debates in his first campaign and refused to participate in any in his third campaign. Shepherds were often accused of injustice. It’s not hard to imagine him feeling confident enough to skip a rematch with Biden.

A difficult situation

Reagan put that bad night behind him. In 2012, Obama easily overcame the obstacle created by his weaknesses in the first debate in the same way, simply by showing up and projecting a strong image on the night of the second debate with Romney.

But Biden’s recovery faces a double whammy because he now has to suppress voices even from old allies and friends urging him to step down.

The question they ask is: Why don’t we take credit for a successful term, call it a transitional presidency, and be done with it? It’s not just a matter of him making it to November or to Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025. It’s a matter of serving until he’s 86 years old.

Democratic Party rules make it nearly impossible to nominate anyone other than Biden, who received 99% of delegates at the August convention in Chicago. He should withdraw from the race and release the agents.

Many in the party hierarchy fear it could lead to a chaotic convention that would divide the party in the fall and for years to come. The wounds and hostilities left by the nomination or conference battles hindered the party and its candidates in 1968, 1972, and 1980, and those with long memories remember them.