Citizens vote in elections, not in ballots

I note the concern of the pollsters with assessing where the country’s political affairs are heading, especially making predictions about the elections.

They are trying to see trends that are being recorded, tides that might indicate a critical shift, to consolidate evidence, to harness the progress of statistics, to evaluate data.

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Of course, in the end they are also invited to make choices. Will they build on the dynamics they’ve seen in the past? Will they take for granted that there is a “page-turning”? Will they predict cuts and sprains?

It is not an easy task. Especially when it always comes down to the possibility of a fall. But also the risk of being accused of “fabricating” estimates to manipulate public opinion.

Because of this, I have always had great respect for pollsters.

But at the same time, I’ve always felt that balloting and elections are two different things.

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I’m not just saying this in the sense that polling basically detects “of the moment” dynamics that may differ from those of a later moment, especially elections.

I say this in the sense that the voter behaves differently at the polls and behaves differently at the polls.

In the poll, he answered on the basis of a real dynamism, a reaction to the current situation, but also his desire to “send a message” on occasion – let’s not forget that voters already know very well how to use the ballot.

At poll time, his reaction is always less angry. more likely. More aware of the overall risks. Looking forward to the next four years.

It is for this reason that voters sometimes tend differently from opinion polls.

It’s not always the pollsters’ fault. It is also a matter of voter turnover.

In the 2019 elections, everyone rated SYRIZA lower in opinion polls. Which makes sense since he was paying the political cost of his memoir policy. However, in the elections he did better than expected, because he was of greater importance in a part of the public, for example the danger of the return of the new democracy.

So so far I think the polls don’t capture all the dynamics.

I don’t think we have a picture yet of how dissatisfied the government is and whether and to what extent wiretapping matters.

We do not adequately take into account the different behavior of voters under the age of 35.

We do not yet measure the effects of the rising cost of living which, unless the radiators are turned on, cannot be felt.

We do not adequately “weigh” how different parts of the electorate will be faced with the “continuation of the status quo or some kind of government change” dilemma.

I don’t have easy answers to all of these questions, which is why I think we need to be moderate in our assessments.

But, sometimes, the important thing is to be able to keep the questions going.