Elections in Spain: a Pyrrhic victory for the People’s Party

The Spanish elections did not reveal a clear winner.

The winner of Sunday’s elections in Spain was the right-wing party and the Figo party, which failed to obtain an absolute majority. This outcome leads to protracted negotiations to form a coalition government between the major and minor parties.

Spanish voters moved to choose between Mr. Figo’s right-wing party and Sanchez’s left-wing party, but without giving them a clear mandate. It is also possible that no majority will be found and Spaniards will be called back to the polls. In any case, Parliament will convene in mid-August.

The difference between Sanchez and Figo is very close

The center-right People’s Party won about 38 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives, according to the final results, more than any other party, but less than what opinion polls had predicted. Even with the support of the far-right Vox party, a potential coalition partner, a government led by the People’s Party will not achieve a parliamentary majority.

The center-left coalition led by Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, which includes the left-wing Soumar group, also failed to muster a majority. And the Socialists increased their percentage from the previous elections, as they won about 34% of the parliamentary seats.

Smaller parties include Together for Catalonia, a separatist group led by Carles Puigdemont, who left Spain five years ago after holding an illegal referendum calling for Catalan independence. The party came in fifth place in Sunday’s elections, winning seven seats in the House of Representatives.

What do analysts say about the result?

“Spain is one of the few countries left in Europe that still has strong social democrats and strong conservatives,” says Ignacio Torreblanca, Madrid-based political analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

He added that “Most Spaniards vote for centrist parties, but the result of who can form a government is dominated by parties that get a few votes and are at the end of the political spectrum.”

Before the election, opinion polls showed PP-Vox government as the most likely outcome. This will be a turning point for Spain as it will bring Vox, a nationalist and anti-immigration party whose members include supporters of the late Spanish dictator Francisco Franco, into government for the first time.

What are the scenarios for the next day?

Immediately after the election result, Prime Minister Sánchez left the window open to exploit the possibilities he had to continue ruling Spain. The Prime Minister of Spain said that the People’s Party and the Vox coalition had been defeated.

Sanchez’s alliance with local parties

Starting from the fact that the PSOE-Sumar alliance has 153 seats, they will need the support of regional factions in particular the Catalans in the ERC or the Basques Bildu, a faction considered to be the heir to the former political arm of the ETA.

He will also have to ensure the abstention of Carles Puigdemont’s Catalan separatist party, Juntes per Catalunya (JxCat), whose leadership has already warned it will not help Sanchez stay in power without a return.

Therefore, if Sanchez reaches an agreement with the regional parties, he will have 172 deputies at his disposal, which is enough to obtain a vote of confidence during the second vote that requires a simple majority. This is one of the scenarios leading to a government, not a new period of political instability.

Right-wing minority government with Socialist abstention

Although the People’s Party emerged as the winner in the elections, Figo was unable to obtain an outright majority, and as a result he was asked to find allies. On Sunday evening, he said that he would start a dialogue with the parliamentary factions in order to form a government, while at the same time calling on the socialists not to obstruct his work.

Since the People’s Party did not get an outright majority with Vox, Mr Feijo will try to form a minority government, which would require abstentions from the Socialists to get a vote of confidence.

If this scenario materializes, it will be the first time that the far right has taken power in Spain in nearly half a century since the end of Franco’s dictatorship in 1975.