Elections in Türkiye: Why voters punished Erdogan

There are many reasons why Turkish citizens punished Recep Tayyip Erdogan, supported Ekrem Imamoglu, and defeated AKP candidates in the municipal elections. The economy was the most important, as citizens wanted to send a message to the Turkish president and his government. The country is in a very difficult situation with inflation at 70% year on year and interest rates hovering at 50%, putting pressure on businesses and families.

But apart from the economy, the Justice and Development Party recorded a worse result than the opinion polls showed, due to increased inflation and disaffected Islamic voters, specifically in Istanbul, which Imamoglu enjoys, outside the Republican Party and in the Kurdish community, which makes 10% of the population City.

Among the elements that indicate citizens' desire to bring about change in the political scene are the words of a 59-year-old Turkish voter, who said: “Enough with the AKP. We are tired of the AKP because of the economic situation.” Ramazan Şimen, 59 years old, said: He is a Şanlıurfa resident who has voted for the AKP in the past, but said he supports the New Prosperity Party: “Everything is too expensive.” “We need change in this country.”

Erdogan was not convinced

The Turkish president exploited the political capital he gained from the early national elections, playing a leadership role during the period before the municipal elections. Despite the result, he appeared conciliatory, telling his supporters that after the elections, the government could focus on reforming the economy, while announcing that he would not run in the next elections.

Erdogan also promised that efforts to curb inflation would bear fruit this year, with priority given to foreign policy, particularly curbing Kurdish aspirations for autonomy. When the results appeared, the Turkish President said, “Unfortunately, we were not able to obtain the result we wanted and hoped for in the local elections.”

He continued, saying: “In any case, we will respect the decision of our people. The fact of closing this chapter of elections, which has exhausted our nation, our people, and our economy over the past year, today is a victory in itself.” Many analysts saw the vote of thousands of local officials as a referendum on Erdogan's authoritarian style of governance. “It was a vote against Erdogan,” says Selim Kuru, an analyst at the Ankara-based think tank TIPAF.

What are the risks to SIMSEC?

According to the Financial Times. The election results are unlikely to close the distance between Erdogan and his group of top economic policymakers led by Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, according to Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of Teneo Consulting. Policy.”

Piccoli stated that the main risk of Simsek's political programme, which calls for fiscal discipline and higher interest rates to tame inflation, is that Erdogan will struggle not to raise the minimum wage and wages for retirees in the second half of 2024.

The president said he would not allow the election result to stand in the way of his economic plans. “We have implemented our medium-term program with all determination. We have moved away from populist steps that would burden our country, our nation and future generations,” Erdogan said. “We will start to see the positive effects of our economic program, with improved inflation at the forefront.”