Engine oil and OPAP after the ninth month is announced

Written by the Apostle Menthos

Motor Oil’s (MOH) net profit attributable to shareholders moved above analyst estimates, with the Piraeus and Optima exchanges delivering as expected between €643 and €628 million and the group showing €732.69 million in the nine months.

In fact, if financial expenses did not rise to 144.36 million euros from 85.97 million euros in the nine months of last year, we could say that the difference is ultimately small compared to the incredible profitability of 2022, due to the circumstances, which shows that the group continues to move quickly. High.

The third quarter was a huge fire for Motor Oil as net profits distributed to shareholders jumped to 440.9 million euros from “only” 321 million euros in the corresponding quarter of last year.

At the same time, the picture of the group’s further growth is shown by the financial situation, with assets reaching 7.679 billion euros in the nine months of this year from the 7.197 billion euros it had at the end of 2022 and shareholders’ equity. Return to shareholders of €2.638 billion from €2.042 billion. We also have an increase in our cash reserves, which from EUR 1.199 billion on December 31, 2022, reached EUR 1.503 billion on September 30, 2023.

Let us also not forget that in the nine months of this year the group paid 263.16 million euros in taxes from the 24.86 million euros it provided in the corresponding period last year. We’re talking about a boost of about 10 times higher.

Graphically, the stock shows on the monthly price chart that it is preparing for something very important to continue, as the large sideways stabilization formation that it has executed for over 300 days within the key range of 22.00 to 23.70 euros is in the final stage before the strong bullish breakup of the high resistance area 25 to 25.82. euro. Statistically, this formation when it occurs at the highest levels of the upward movement of the stock value is very aggressive and when it breaks it gives at least the upside of the sideways movement which in the case of Motor Oil stock gives us more than 30 euros.

For OPAP, the 29.8% decline in net profit for the third quarter of this year compared to the corresponding third quarter of last year may have brought in EUR 83.3 million from EUR 118.5 million, but in the nine-month picture it is still a prevailing +7.7%. Compared to 2022, which brought in 307.7 million euros from 285.8 million euros. Earnings per share in the nine months amounted to 0.8456 euros from 0.8108 euros, an increase of +4.3%. However, this slight reversal of the positive dynamics developed by OPAP over the previous quarters was expected by most analysts, the main reason being the closure of a small percentage of stores in flood-affected areas and the delayed start of the sports season. Compared to last year.

Now based on the nine-month recurring earnings before taxes, interest and amortization (EBITDA) of €547.3 million, management expects the full year to be between €720-740 million, thus forecasting the current year. Q4 Additional rise in EBITDA from 200 to 220 million euros.

Online casino continues to be the significant relative difference in individual games for OPAP, with revenue in the nine months up 26.4%, rising from €138.8 million in 2022 to €175.5 million, with its contribution to total revenue now reaching 11.6% of 9.9% in the corresponding period of last year. However, the lottery remains the undisputed sponsor of total revenue with 35.3% or €532.4 million, followed by sports betting with €464.64 million and 30.8% of the total.

Finally, OPAP’s cash position is also strong, with net cash available at €147.8 million.

From a graphical point of view, the OPAP share looks a bit disturbed after the €1 dividend cut and the possible impact of the change in shares on the weights of the indices due to the expansion of the free float and the simultaneous increase in the National Bank’s weighting. Thus, the bearish split in the semi-weekly price chart of the €15 support zone opened the downward path to the 2022 long-term “Q” line at around €14 in the €16.40 to €17 zone.

* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis and investment strategy