Fattah: Economists expect an “Armageddon” in the eurozone in 2023 – Financial Post

The vast majority of economists seem optimistic about its trajectory Euro-zone In 2023 as a result of high inflation and emergencies lack of energy on the block. At the same time, as we have indicated, the high rates of unemployment and the collapse of prices in real estate have become the “sword of Damocles”.

According to a related poll by the Financial Times, nearly 90% of 37 economists report that the eurozone already exists. Recession The vast majority expects GDP to contract throughout the next year.

The five risk scenarios for the markets in 2023

The dangers of natural gas rationing remain

“European gas markets still pose a major risk,” said Chiara Zangarelli, an economist at Morgan Stanley. “Additional disruptions to flows, or a particularly cold winter, could lead to new tensions and push prices up again, triggering another round of adjustment and destroying demand,” he noted.

Meanwhile, Sylvain Breuer, chief economist for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at S&P Global Ratings, told the Financial Times that “the risks of a natural gas bond issue may have been avoided for this winter, but the issue of energy supply next winter remains open.”

In addition, economists surveyed in the survey indicated that while Europe has turned to Norway, the United States and the Middle East to make up for lower inflows from Russia, it will be difficult to bridge the gap in time for the winter of 2023.

“Wound” in the housing market

The economic recession, combined with the increase in mortgages across Europe, is expected to cause a shift in the housing market in Geria Epirus. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 2.5 percentage points during 2022 and is expected to raise borrowing costs further in 2023.

The slowdown, coupled with the increase in mortgages, is expected to affect the real estate market across Europe. On average, economists expect house prices to fall 4.7% in 2023. House prices “won’t continue to rise if we’re in a recession and lending prices are going up,” Maria Dermatzi, deputy director of the European think tank Brueghel, told the Financial Times.

Automakers will feel the “pain” in 2023, too

Economy, unemployment and inflation

At the same time, economists expect the eurozone economy to shrink by around 0.01% in 2023. This is a more pessimistic forecast compared to the Commission and European Central Bank’s forecasts of 0.3% and 0.5% growth, respectively. They also expect inflation to remain above the 2% target for at least two more years.

As for inflation, according to the Financial Times, it is expected to remain above the ECB’s 2% target for at least another two years. On average, respondents expect prices to rise by just over 6% next year and nearly 2.7% in 2024.

In addition, as shown, wage growth is expected to reach 4.4% in 2023, well below the European Central Bank’s 5.2%, while economists expect unemployment to rise to 7.1% at the end of 2023.