Four certainties of the economy after the elections

sta Financial issues There are always doubts. In practice, one Good economic policy Judged by effective management of uncertainties. But because in Nowadays We have some facts that are obviously more satisfying, let me put them on record today.

Surely Greece will soon cross the threshold of the solvent nations, the state through which “expelled”gradually in the years 2010-11. A crisis of ten years will find a happy ending. And the main reason why this is happening now, that is, after the elections, while the country is already borrowing as if it has acquired investment grade, is that The elections end tomorrow Moreover, it does not leave behind any confusion, as some components of the opposition would very much like. But it’s great the way it is this timeOtherwise, we must remain careful. Mainly because we need to win two more ranks, at least, in order to We are satisfied.

The second good news is related to the previous one. Like anyone who bothers to read Greece’s rolling three-year budget program (which Tsipras’ opponents refer to as “medium-term,” apparently in memory of Up-Down Square) The failed Mitsotakis government does not intend to stray from the placid, plausible, and sober goal of securing a primary surplus equal to the debt-to-GDP ratio.

At that point, the religion It becomes neutral, meaning that its presentation does not increase it. Since the nominal value of the debt has increased due to the loans the country needs to avoid a pandemic recession, the goal is “sacred”. If the markets continue to believe him, as Mitsotakis employees do, there is no risk of a financial turnaround even if he says he wants to. Every jackalwith sympathy.

The third good news is that economic inflation continues to decline, despite the unbearable upward pressure exerted by food and, to a lesser extent, two other groups products And services. The bet now is whether the apparent rise (however forced) in labor costs, which will necessarily be reflected in Increasing the cost of factors of productionA new internal cycle of inflationary pressures will begin this time.

The fourth good news, which can contain the negative side effects of the former, is that Many investments Those who were waiting for the “clear victory of Mitsotakis”, will now be activated under the system of intense competition in the markets for goods and services. Provided that these investments lead, sooner rather than later, to Improve competitivenessWe will avoid a large part of the inflationary effects of higher wages.

There are other things that are encouraging, but I will wait until I hear, in a few days, the programmatic pronouncements from Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

* Babis Papadimitriou is a journalist, a new parliamentary candidate