François Hollande: “Putin is not crazy, but radically rational”

the Russian President Vladimir Putin He’s not crazy – a “radically rational” leader, who bet on the gradual exhaustion of the West in order to bring it to the negotiating table and bring a Russian-friendly end to the war in Ukraine. Or at least that’s what the former French president claimed, Francois Hollande He speaks to Politico.

Hollande was president from 2012 to 2017, so he has a direct view of Putin. Together with then German Chancellor Angela Merkel, he led the so-called “Normandy plan” in 2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea and supported separatists in the Donbass region.

Of course, those efforts failed to avert full-scale war today, with Hollande saying that subsequent developments showed Putin only cares about power — which also casts doubt on the value of future talks with him.

Radically rational

“He’s a radically rational man, if you will,” the former French president said when asked by Politico’s Nicolas Vinokour if there was a chance the Russian president might want to expand the war on additional fronts. “He has his own logic and in this context he is ready to use violence. The only thing he can understand is the force we can show against him.”

Shortly before the war is over for a full year, Putin might, in Hollande’s view, “try to secure his stabilizing conquests in the conflict, in the hope that public opinion will tire and Europeans will be afraid of escalation. Then he will try to negotiate.”

But unlike Hollande’s presidency, the burden of arbitration is likely to fall on Turkey or China – “a fact that reassures no one”, he added.

support sure?

Although he considers that dialogue efforts with Russia are futile now, he does not criticize Emmanuel Macron (his finance minister in his government) for his own attempts, nor is he convinced by the arguments about the transfer of European power to the East, specifically to countries such as Poland, who support Ukraine more powerfully.

In his opinion, the tough position of the countries of the East and North is rather a safe bet. These countries, especially the Baltic and Scandinavian countries, are primarily associated with the United States. They see American protection as a shield.”

So far, Biden added, “Biden has shown exemplary solidarity and responded exemplary to his role within the transatlantic coalition.” But in the future, with another president and a Congress full of isolationists – or at least less willing to spend – will the US be able to maintain the same stance? “

“We have to convince our EU partners that the issue is about political principles and values. We must not abandon them, but cooperation can also provide valuable and strong security guarantees.”