French presidential elections: what now?

Now re-elected, will Emmanuel Macron use his second five-year term to rectify the situation with Morocco, after an initial five-year term?

Two sentences for all and for all, one for “expresses[r] Congratulations” and “formula[ er] Wishes for success,” and the second with “congratulations.”[r] On the depth of the multidimensional relations that unite the Moroccan and French peoples: the letter sent by King Mohammed VI on 25 April 2022 to French President Emmanuel Macron on the occasion of his re-election on the same day, at least according to reports. The MAP was, to say the least, terse.

The impression, which is even more impressive when compared with early May 2017, to the first election of Mr. Macron at the head of France: the message devoted to it by MAP contained in itself nine paragraphs, one of which highlighted “high human and intellectual qualities” Macron, while the last paragraph expressed the desire of King Mohammed VI to “promote [la] exemplary cooperation [entre le Maroc et la France] for this reason. [lui et son homologue français] statment[assent] Many challenges that challenge [l’]The Euro-Mediterranean region and the Sahel-Saharan region.” Two days after the message, King Mohammed VI will take the phone to discuss with Mr. Macron, after which a press release will be published from the Royal Court revealing that “the interview was an opportunity to highlight the unique nature of relations. this link [le Maroc et la France] In all areas, as well as a common desire to strengthen and enrich this exceptional partnership.”

On this basis, it cannot therefore be said that the content of the last message of King Mohammed VI should not be interpreted as an expression of a certain dissatisfaction on the part of Morocco towards Mr. Macron. In any case, the reasons will not be absent, as we indicated in our previous issues. Throughout his first five-year term, there has certainly been no open diplomatic crisis like the one that followed the attempted summons, in February 2014, of the Director-General of the National Territorial Surveillance (DGST), Abdellatif Hammouchi, by the French torture tribunals. The case, which turned out to be the manufacture of former kickboxer Zakaria Moumni.

But this is due more to Moroccan restraint than to facts, which, in themselves, have more than once given the kingdom the opportunity to ride on its high horse without opting to do so in the end. For example, we can cite the early outing against so-called “Islamic separatism” on October 2, 2020 by Mr. Macron himself, who then named Moroccan imams and apostates – as well as Turks and Algerians – to denounce “external influences” on Islam in France. Do you really need to name their nationality?

In any case, the impression that resulted was that he and the government officials he appointed were using Morocco in particular as a pouch to gain points against the far right, which cannot confirm the decision taken a little less. A year later, on September 28, 2021, to reduce the number of visas granted to Moroccans in the same way as Algerians and Tunisians on the pretext that “their countries do not agree to resume [leurs] Citizens” – as the Minister of State for the Prime Minister, government spokesman, Gabriel Attal, told Europe Radio Matin – at a time when Eric Zemmour’s controversy and his anti-immigration platform were announced in the second round of the presidency.

punching ball
“the decision [de la France] sovereign. Morocco will study it, but the reasons that justify it require accuracy, a dialogue, because they do not reflect reality,” he said only on the same day, during a press conference held in Rabat alongside his Mauritanian counterpart Ismail Ould Cheikh. Ahmed, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Bourita, but we know thanks The book “Night Falls Twice” published on February 23, 2022 by journalists Corinne Lake and Eric Mandonnet said that behind the scenes Mr. Macron had to do this three times to communicate with King Mohammed VI by phone and explain his government’s decision to him.

To this, we can also add the exit of the French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire on December 2, 2019, who announced, during the large bloc of French cars that is the auto platform, that he does not really taste the “development model” that leads manufacturers such as PSA and Renault to move some of their plants to Slovakia, Turkey and … Morocco; What he will return discreetly during a visit less than two months later to Rabat, highlighting the fact that “France wants a win-win partnership” with the kingdom.

However, these various facts may, in the latter case, be taken as trifles when placed next to what must undoubtedly constitute the main point of contention with Morocco: the question of the Moroccan Sahara. On this point, “France’s position (…) is consistent, in favor of a just, lasting and mutually acceptable political solution, in accordance with United Nations Security Council resolutions,” as stated on March 21, 2022. The spokeswoman for the French Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, Anne-Claire Legendre, During a press conference she also specified that “from this perspective, the Moroccan autonomy plan is the basis for serious and credible discussions.”

Except that in fact, on April 13, 2021, we saw the Secretary of State for European Affairs, Claude Bon, “regrets[r]“The decision of the Republic of Morocco (LREM), Mr. Macron’s party, to establish a branch in Dakhla in the Moroccan Sahara, and to consider it a “local initiative.” There, too, Morocco said nothing, but it goes without saying that the statement must have been disturbed in more ways than one at a time when In which the Kingdom is in a confrontation with Germany because of its mobilization in the Security Council against the resolution.The United States’ recognition of the Moroccan Sahara, and when the crisis with Spain was about to erupt after the decision of the northern neighbor to enter the hospital, without referring to the Moroccan authorities, the Secretary-General of the Sahrawi separatist movement in the Republic Maghreb: The Polisario Front, Ibrahim Ghali, suffers from COVID-19.

ambiguous position
Germany and Spain have since changed their position, with the second country stating that since March 14, 2022 it has considered the initiative to negotiate an autonomy law “the most serious, realistic and credible solution to the conflict” over Morocco. Sahara, which calls into question about the famous “at the same time” so often criticized even in France by Mr. Macron, who always tries to maintain the most ambiguous position possible. How long will it stay on the same line? And can he do that?

Finally, it should not be overlooked that, with the exception of Mr. Macron, it does not seem that part of the French establishment sees favorably the strengthening of relations with Morocco: we know, for example, that the Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, it must be emphasized that Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defense The former, headed by François Hollande, leans more towards Algeria because he considers that securing the Sahara and the coast in Libya and Mali passes through the eastern neighbor, while economically. Many of them now have Morocco as a direct competitor, particularly in West Africa, where the kingdom has gradually become the first African investor and has captured classic French market shares in services, communications and construction.

This economic plan also covers the Moroccan-Moroccan context, strictly speaking, where we know that French leaders desire France to retain the privileged position that has long been its own: a problem for it, Morocco has chosen to diversify its partners, for example, preparing to offer to build the Dar line Bayda – Marrakesh – Agadir High Speed ​​Futures (LGV) to China, or at a more strategic level, make a deliberate choice to buy its weapons from the United States instead of him (Uncle Sam in particular should monopolize the lion’s share of the $20 billion in military investment that The Royal Armed Forces (FAR) is currently “implementing it”).

So to speak, and as King Mohammed VI indicated in a still famous speech he delivered on the occasion of the first Moroccan-Gulf Summit at the end of April 2016 in Daraya, Saudi Arabia, Morocco (…) is not so. One can add this, as many officials remind us. Moroccans often: Today’s Morocco is no longer the Morocco of yesterday. It is up to Mr. Macron to take the New Deal into account and use his second five-year term to rectify the situation; If he doesn’t, he may lose Morocco, but he probably won’t be the only one…