Gerasimos Papadopoulos at Newsbomb.gr: How a lunar eclipse can cause an earthquake – Newsbomb – News

Marianna Krasanaki

03/05/2024 13:22

the Earthquakes It is a phenomenon that concerns our country little. Many times we try to explain phenomena and understand why they occur, and at the same time there is fear in our minds that a larger earthquake may occur.

On the occasion of the rare earthquake that struck New York on April 5, 2024, a landslide occurred in Santorini But also the constant small earthquakes in areas of the country, s Gerasimos PapadopoulosResearch Director at the Geodynamic Institute of the National Observatory in Athens Speaking to Newsbomb.gr.

doctor. Seismology explains what we don't know about the shaking of the ground caused by a lunar eclipse that causes earthquakes, while answering questions we all think about from time to time. What area in Greece is the most seismic and when is a major catastrophic earthquake expected in Istanbul that could affect Greece. Finally, he answers how useful it is Minwas earthquake drill. Which happened for the first time in our country and explains the landslide that occurred in Santorini on April 27, 2024.

Lunar and solar eclipses and their impact on Earth

As science has proven, the Moon can affect the geological phenomena of our planet, as well as its tides. What exactly is correct? Could our satellites, or even other astronomical phenomena, cause earthquakes or movements of tectonic plates?

Research on these topics is very extensive internationally. We know that celestial bodies exert gravitational forces on our planet causing tidal effects. The tide can be observed directly in the sea. What is not widely known is that Tides also occur in the solid body of the Earth. However, these tides cannot be seen with the naked eye, like sea tides.

However, the existence of such tides has been proven on the one hand theoretically, and on the other hand has been measured with suitable instruments. We must emphasize that there is a consensus among scientists that the gravitational forces of celestial bodies on Earth are not the main cause of earthquakes, but rather are only a cause of their acceleration. The main reason lies in the geodynamic phenomena that occur inside the Earth. When earthquake genesis in an area “matures” due to internal processes, i.e. the loading on the candidate seismic fault is already close to producing an earthquake, lunar-induced tides can suddenly cause additional loading and accelerate an earthquake, which will happen anyway. That is why we say that in such cases Earthquakes are not caused by gravitational forces, but are stimulated by them.

What is the difference between a solar eclipse and a lunar eclipse in terms of their effect on Earth?

It has been proven for years that the gravitational force caused by the Moon is more important than that caused by the Sun. This is because although the Sun is much larger than the Moon, the latter is much closer to the Earth. This result generally refers to the way these two objects interact and is not limited to the phases of the eclipse.

Can a full moon or new moon cause an earthquake?

Research conducted so far has produced mixed results, but it is generally believed that the gravitational force exerted by the Moon on our planet may contribute to triggering earthquakes through the mechanism we have described. Several studies have concluded that seismic excitation may be more frequent in the middle of the lunar cycle, that is, when the moon is full, and at the end and beginning of the lunar cycle. My fellow mathematicians and I have been coming up with such research results for the Greek region for years. Practically this means that as long as… The lunar cycle lasts about 28 days, The “preference” for triggering earthquakes falls around 14^the day (The full moon) and in the days 27 or 28 (Complete the course) and 1 or 2 (beginning of the course). But we have to be careful. This does not mean that every time we are on some of these days of the lunar cycle we will have an earthquake trigger.

Could earthquakes resulting from such phenomena occur in countries that rarely experience seismic shocks, as happened in New York, or even in countries with intense seismic activity, such as Greece and Turkey? Has there ever been an earthquake in Greece due to this type of situation?

Seismic excitation, in the sense we discussed earlier, can occur at any time and anywhere as long as the accumulation of loading due to the root cause already exists. But this phenomenon is very complex. When a particular earthquake occurs, it is difficult to determine whether the excitation mechanism is operating or not. The earthquake that occurs on a full moon is not necessarily attributable to it, as it may have occurred by chance on that day. The results we mentioned above remain at the level of statistics and more research is needed.

Earthquake in Istanbul

When can we expect the big earthquake in Istanbul?

We don't know that. The search result saying “We expect a major earthquake in the wider area of ​​Istanbul” does not specify the exact time. The false impression has been given that such an earthquake is imminent, and that it will occur in the coming days or weeks. We have no evidence of such a thing. here This is a long-term forecast.

To what extent could this affect the Greek region?

The geodynamic impact of the Greek region was triggered by a strong earthquake that struck western Turkey in 1999, when the devastating 7.5 magnitude earthquake in the eastern part of the Sea of ​​Marmara on 17 August 1999 was followed by the 5.9 magnitude Parnitha earthquake. On September 7, 1999. This does not mean that every time a strong earthquake occurs in western Turkey, it will be followed by a strong earthquake in Greece. on the contrary, This phenomenon rarely occurs There must be many favorable geophysical conditions.

Will it be an earthquake similar to the one that occurred in early 2023 in Türkiye?

The recently hotly debated long-term forecast points to an earthquake similar to the 1999 earthquake. In terms of magnitude, it is not far from the two earthquakes that occurred in southern Turkey in 2023. As seen in 2023 or even 1999. The subject of the research, as the factors that shape The ultimate devastating impact of an earthquake is diverse.

Earthquakes in Greece

In which area can a major earthquake be expected in the coming period? I mentioned the Gulf of Corinth, but the system there has not yet exploded.

In our country, not all regions have the same level of earthquakes. Seismic activity in other places is higher, in other places lower. in Areas of high seismic activity include the central Ionian region, the Gulf of Corinth, the wider Crete region, and the Dodecanese. However, there are also surprises. Therefore, from a practical standpoint, continuous preparedness and prevention are of great importance.

On the island of Crete, a MINOAS exercise was conducted to cope with a major earthquake with a possible tsunami. What do you think of this wonderful exercise? Will it help the Cretans in the event of a major earthquake in the future?

Exercises of this type are always beneficial for many reasons. Through them, the readiness and interoperability of civil protection services is tested in the areas where the exercises are taking place. Weaknesses and shortcomings are highlighted. It is therefore an important step to improve exercise in other areas of the country. In this particular case, I think the tsunami risk was well included in the exercise scenario because it is there as well.

Screenshots from the MINOS workout:

Is Athens at risk of a major earthquake such that a similar exercise could be carried out in the capital and not just in Crete?

Such exercises should be conducted everywhere in the country. There is practically no corner of our country that is not exposed to the risk of earthquakes, in some places more and in others less. In Attica, seismic activity is relatively low. But the Parnitha earthquake in 1999, although not particularly large, was particularly devastating. This is due to the high concentration of industrial and commercial activities and high population and construction density. Therefore, no region of the country should be neglected in terms of preparedness, taking preventive measures, and conducting exercises.

Regarding the landslide in Santorini, what caused it and to what extent could the earthquake cause a bigger problem?

Santorini's volcanic caldera has almost vertical cliffs. Volcanic materials are gradually weathered, destabilized, and thus often collapse seaward. This also happened recently. In the event of an earthquake, such collapses could occur on a larger scale. The phenomenon is dangerous and preventive measures must be taken. Particularly dangerous is the phenomenon of falling rocks on the famous Red Beach. There protection measures should be very strict and may include blocking access.

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