Greece and Turkey: Let’s prepare for the worst

By Manolis Capsis

I read analysts who accuse, perhaps not entirely unfairly, the Greek government of being responsible for this unprecedented deterioration of relations with Turkey.

Was it not Mitsotakis who attacked Turkey in his famous address to Congress and asked the Americans not to give it F-16s? And already on the day after Mitsotakis and Erdogan met in Polis, where there was supposed to be a cessation of escalation? Why should all this be published? To satisfy the electoral public of the New Democracy and Antonis Samaras? So what did we expect Erdogan to say to the United Nations? to please us?

Was it not us – another argument – who canceled the new meeting of diplomatic delegations to discuss confidence-building measures? Aren’t we the ones who say we should always talk to the Turks, even when we agree to disagree? And how does this position correspond to the rejection of dialogue, even at the official level?

Although the arguments are serious and well-founded, I’m afraid it was already last year. Although this government has not avoided the temptation to treat the Greek-Turkish with one eye on the domestic audience, what is happening today with Tayyip Erdogan cannot be explained by the traditional analytical tools that we use in public debate and that the Turkish president wants – compressed by the economy and at risk of losing Elections – to make use of the Greek-Turkish language and to create a scene of tension to mobilize the national electorate. Or at least that’s not all…

Daily attacks, degrading reports, “we will come suddenly one night”, references to Smyrna and the disaster, photos published in the Turkish press of Greek ferries landing armored vehicles on the islands and thus violated – according to the Turkish. Release- The island’s demilitarization arrangements, should show us that we are at another stage. And prepare for the worst case scenario. Erdogan’s escalation now looks like a self-fulfilling prophecy, and it’s hard to see how this warlike rhetoric will play into a diplomatic blunder.

Erdogan’s tactics are putty copies of Putin and what is happening in Ukraine. It is the same pattern that all authoritarian regimes use to justify military interventions. By issuing threats, they first try to intimidate their opponents and bend their will to resist. They use fake news to present the opposition regime as illegal and criminal. (The Ukrainian regime is Nazi, and Greece is drowning refugees in the Aegean.)

They present the other country as a threat to their security and as part of the dark plan of powerful powers. (Ukraine is a pawn of the Americans and NATO, and Greece illegally has an army on the islands and is used by foreign forces with the aim of breaking up Turkey.) They launch hybrid attacks and invoke history and mistakes of the past to lend historical legitimacy to their imperial endeavours. They blindfold public opinion and ultimately present their warlike aspirations as a right to self-defense. (Putin said Ukraine was planning a nuclear attack, Akar spoke of the right to self-defense…).

PS1 I found a very “interesting” scenario published in the Greek press (see Kathimerini 9/24) in which he wants Erdogan to plan to postpone the elections (which he may lose), citing articles from the 2017 revised Turkish constitution that provide for the postponement of the elections. Elections due to war or a state of emergency, in which case the powers of the Turkish president are extended and expanded.

PS 2 Note that if Erdogan loses elections and power, he is not only in danger of losing the presidency. Staying in power is literally a matter of life or death for Erdogan. This may explain his willingness to even take a war adventure, with disastrous consequences for both countries. who wins…

So let’s prepare for the worst.