Israel vs. Hezbollah: Igniting the Fuse of a War No One Wants?

The President’s Director’s Reflections Prove Prophetic Biden To contain tensions between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah organization. Amos Hostinwhen he expressed his concerns last May in a webinar about “the accidental spark that could ignite the Middle East with US involvement.”

“What worries me every day is what would happen if a bus full of children or some other innocent political target were shot at, which would drag us into war,” he said at the time. “As long as we know that such a thing is not in the interest of either side.”

The bus full of children may not have been hit, but what happened Saturday night in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights was worse.

Twelve children, aged between 10 and 16, were killed by a rocket while they were training on his field in Majdal Shams, a town inhabited by Druze (Israeli Arabs fighting Hamas).

According to Israel, the missile was launched from Hizb allah From Shebaa in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah denied any responsibility for the attack.

Will Hostin’s fears of a full-scale escalation of the war finally come true?

Listen to the Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz Maybe yes: “We are approaching the moment of all-out war against it.” Hizb allah“The answer will be proportionate,” he said in an interview with Israeli television on Saturday evening.

The retaliation appears to have been blessed, at least to some extent, by the United States. “We are determined to ensure Israel’s right to defend its citizens from terrorist attacks,” the foreign minister said. Anthony BlinkenBut he added that the United States does not want this conflict to expand.

So far the response has been lukewarm. More strikes are likely to follow.

“We are tired of the aggressive rhetoric and empty words that are always accompanied by a cowardly reaction,” the former Israeli prime minister told CNNi. Naftali Bennettstressing:

“The only way to stop all this, the only way to prevent our enemies from hitting us, is to launch a powerful counterattack… There is no other way.”

playing with fire for months

For months, the international community has been trying to avoid escalating tensions between the two countries. Israel And Hizb allahWith Iran estimated to have at least 150 thousand missiles And Missiles Turning to the south, there are now fears of a war that could destroy the country entirely. Lebanon It would cause widespread damage to Israel.

Moreover, as Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told CNNi: “The conditions are being set for an unprecedented situation in this region: a major regional war in the region.” Persian GulfHe also warned that this could also lead to a direct confrontation between the United States. States And Iran.

During the last ten months of fighting, Israel, Hezbollah and Iran were always “picking up” the situation at the last moment, while we all saw that we were on the edge of the abyss.

Last January in Israel Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri assassinated in Beirut.

Until then, an escalation of the war was avoided.

In April, Israel killed a senior commander in a deadly attack on Damascus. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCHG). In response, Iran unleashed unprecedented retaliation against Israel. An extension of the war was avoided.

This status quo is proving unsustainable. Tens of thousands of Israelis have been displaced from their homes. Large areas of northern Israel look like ghost towns.

A similar picture is repeated in southern Lebanon. He says the best way to avoid a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is Blinkento be achieved Ceasefire in Gaza. Talks aimed at achieving this goal will resume on Sunday.

But this will only be a fragile solution. Israel wants to eliminate its threat completely. Hizb allahWhich led to the return of the Lebanese Shiite group to the Litani River, under the UN Security Council resolution that ended the last major war between the two countries in 2006.

“If the world does not remove Hezbollah from the border, Israel will,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galad said last December.

Thus, despite the bombings, pressures and fears of escalation, the fighting between the two sides continued. Israel And Hizb allah They continue to boil instead of igniting.

It seems that no one wants this war. But as he warned, Hostin In the same webinar: “History has shown that wars have broken out all over the world even when leaders did not want them to, because they had no other choice.”