Japan prepares for ‘massive earthquake’

like Earthquakes rock parts of Japan In the previous days, local and national government agencies were immediately mobilized.

Meteorologists gathered and issued a temporary tsunami warning. A special committee warned of the possibility of a tsunami. Another ‘super earthquake’ could strike Next time.

The precautionary measures have caused travel delays and shortages at supermarkets, while the country’s prime minister has cancelled foreign trips.

As it came CNNUltimately, the government lifted most of the warnings and reported no major damage from the 7.1-magnitude quake. However, Much of the country remains on high alert, preparing for a possible emergency. During what is usually considered the peak travel and summer vacation season in Japan.

Doubts have been expressed about the risks.

but, Some experts have expressed doubts about whether such a warning is necessary, or even accurate. – and whether this risks drawing resources away from communities considered less vulnerable.

Japan is no stranger to severe earthquakes. Located in the ring of fireIt is an area of ​​intense seismic and volcanic activity on both sides of the Pacific Ocean.

“Japan straddles four tectonic plates, making it one of the most earthquake-prone areas in the world.”“It’s a very interesting development,” said Soichi Yoshioka, a professor at Kobe University in Japan.

«About 10% of the world’s earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater occur in or around Japan.So the risk is much greater than in places like Europe or Eastern America, where earthquakes are rare.”Yoshioka stated.

Threat of ‘huge earthquake’ in Nankai Trench

It was the worst earthquake in modern Japanese history. The 2011 9.1 magnitude Tohoku earthquake that caused a massive tsunami and nuclear disasterAbout 20,000 people lost their lives.

Then there was Threat of ‘huge earthquake’ in Nankai TrenchWith a magnitude that could exceed 9. Seismologists say this earthquake could happen within a few decadesAlthough this threat remains controversial in science.

Government of Japan He has been warning of a possible earthquake in the Nankai Trench for many years.As a result, the likelihood of its occurrence is known. However, it is also controversial, as some scientists argue that it is ineffective to focus attention only on the small chance of a hypothetical earthquake occurring in a particular part of Japan, especially when other parts of the country face similar threats but receive much less attention.

What is Nankai Trench?

The Nankai Trench is a 700-kilometre (435 mi) long subduction zone, referring to the phenomenon that Tectonic plates slide under each other. Most of the world’s earthquakes and tsunamis are caused by tectonic plate movements, and the strongest earthquakes often occur in subduction zones.

In this case, the tectonic plate under the Philippine Sea is slowly slipping beneath the continental plate where Japan is located, at a rate of several centimeters per year, according to a 2013 report by the government’s Earthquake Research Committee.

In the Nankai Trench, major earthquakes are recorded every 100 to 200 years, according to the committee. The last of these earthquakes occurred in 1944 and 1946, both measuring 8.1 magnitude, and devastated Japan, killing at least 2,500 people, injuring thousands more, and destroying tens of thousands of homes.

By calculating the intervals between each major earthquake, The Japanese government has warned that there is a 70% to 80% chance that Japan will be hit by another earthquake in the Nankai Trench within 30 years.Which is expected to be between 8 and 9 in size.

These long-term and vague forecasts have faced severe criticism from some quarters.

Controversy in the scientific community

Yoshioka, of Kobe University, said the 70% to 80% figure was probably too high, and that the data was based on a specific theory, making it more prone to error. However, he had no doubt about it. “There will be a great earthquake in this area.” in the future.

“I tell my students, the Nankai Trench earthquake will surely come, whether it is in your generation or your children’s generation.” He said.

Robert Geller, seismologist and professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo, He was more skeptical, describing the Nankai Trench earthquake as “The scenario formed” and “Pure condition”.

He also claimed that earthquakes do not occur in cycles, but can occur at any place and time – meaning that it makes no sense to calculate when the next earthquake will occur based on when previous earthquakes occurred.

This is a point of contention in the scientific community. Even if there is a potential threat on the horizon, the odds are extremely low, Yoshioka and Geller say. Excessive or unnecessary public safety measures Received last week.

Thousands of hotels cancelled

Possibility of a “huge earthquake” in Japan This has led to the cancellation of thousands of hotels located in high-risk areas, harming the tourism sector. In the middle of summer, as experts in the field said today.

In West Kosi, one of the areas that could be the hardest hit, At least 9,400 people have cancelled their reservations. The local hotel business association said hotels were closed after the warning.

Cancellations for August 9-18 are equal. With losses of up to 140 million yen “It’s about 868,500 euros,” industry representative Susumu Nishitami told AFP.

Warning of “strong earthquake” coincides with the annual holiday During this time, many Japanese people return to their families and visit their hometowns.

“Normally, all the hotels and hostels in our city are full at this time of year.” Nisitani pointed out.

Local media reported that the warning is expected to be lifted on Thursday if no abnormal seismic activity is recorded.

“We have a small hope that we will see new bookings slowly come in once the warning is lifted,” Nesitani said.