Like … rock star, Biden in Warsaw – “Bold visit to Ukraine, will it be successful?” Blumberg says

As US President Joe Biden addressed the crowd gathered outside the Royal Castle in Warsaw on Tuesday, the evening sounded like … the appearance of a rock star like his campaign speech.

Rays of light jumped over the crowd. The historic building is covered in blue and yellow lights reflecting the Ukrainian flag. The background music, played by a loud Norwegian DJ, prompted “cheers of freedom”.

The scene was portrayed as a celebration — a cinematic moment of the presidency in which Biden frames the battle of democratic ideals against populist authoritarianism. That sentiment was heightened as the president returned to the United States on Monday after a surprise trip to the heart of Ukraine, where he declared Kiev’s victory over Moscow on the one-year anniversary of the invasion.

The success of Biden’s visit to Kiev will be evaluated in the coming months

According to Bloomberg, the actual success of the visit will be assessed in the coming months as these perceptions are tested by increasingly difficult political circumstances.

The trip was a show of force that, analysts say, highlighted Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s miscalculation and rewarded the costly and difficult investment in democracy made by the United States and its allies.

“Today, President Putin is facing something he didn’t think possible a year ago: The world’s democracies are getting stronger, not weaker. The world’s autocrats are getting weaker, not stronger,” Biden said.

For Biden himself, his visits to Ukraine and Poland will be considered a success if he ends up rallying others to maintain their support, while strengthening his political standing in the United States.

Biden’s re-election will likely depend on the outcome of the war

In the United States, issues of war — which have come to define foreign policy for a Biden presidency — align with the president’s preferred framework for the 2024 election, when he is expected to redefine his race as a battle against extremism and in favor of democratic ideals.

Biden, who wore classic sunglasses, put his signature on the streets of war-torn Kiev on Monday in his upcoming re-election campaign.

The gritty spectacle was an implicit challenge to attacks on the 80-year-old president’s age and comes after a widely broadcast state address in which Biden was praised for his clever improvisations as he fended off derision from some lawmakers.

But in the end, any bid for re-election is likely to hinge on the final outcome of a war that tests Biden’s theory that collective action and democratic ideals will prevail.

Biden seeks to bolster international resolve by highlighting American successes

On the international level, the United States seeks to preserve its alliance – rooted in Europe and the Group of Seven – as the war enters its second year and costs and complications mount.

To bolster international resolve, Biden has repeatedly sought to compare the success of U.S. intelligence and the Ukrainian military to failed tactics.

Biden stressed that the coalition’s efforts are being intensified, among other things, new sanctions to be announced later this week and the NATO 2024 summit to be held in the United States.

The announcement of $480 million in military aid that accompanied his visit also highlighted the evolving nature of the war — and support for allies.

The package – 32 of war – includes munitions, missiles, radar and communications systems, but no new technology. Instead, he focused on the kind of maintenance and resupply that are increasingly important for Ukraine to maintain its defences.

Biden also took the opportunity to portray Putin as weak and desperate, in a message he clearly intended to reverberate in other capitals. But he tacitly admitted that the coming months will require him to show strength at home.