NATO’s stake in Vilnius, and the extreme blackmail of Erdogan and the Turkish-Greek

For one of the most important summits for the future of the summits, NATO prepares as after the end cold War looking for new strategy And he plans to face the reality he hoped he’d never find himself in. A manifestation of overt aggressive action by Russia against an independent European country closely associated with the Alliance.

And at this very critical moment for everyone alliance but also the WestThere is the black sheep, Turkey, which is trying to blackmail the last minute to secure quid pro quo even to fulfill its initial obligations as a member of the alliance. what.Erdogan He does so in a manner dishonorable to the Coalition and insulting to the United States.

In the Vilnius the 31 commanders In their hands will be the proposed new strategic planning of the alliance. The roughly 4,000-page submission is labeled related to New alliance strategy By defining the sectors: arctic + arctic, middle with baltic states and Central Europe And the South which includes Mediterranean sea and the Black Sea.

It is also the coalition’s commitment to the immediate deployment of forces of up to 300,000 men (100,000 in 10 days and 200,000 in readiness for 30 days), the clear identification of points of deployment of these forces, the reinforcement of equipment and the adaptation to new data (fighters, tanks, large artillery range, systems Developed anti-aircraft/anti-missile, enhanced electronic means of communication, coordination, and logistics).

The main issue for the Alliance is not only the increase in the defense spending of member states but also the better coordination of the interoperability of systems and above all the distribution of the burden of production of defense items, such as The war in Ukraine Allied reserves were exhausted …

After the first shock on February 24, 2022 when the Russian invasion began, the Alliance is preparing to establish a strong deterrence and deterrence force.

The first topic on the agenda will be of course Ukraine. To the dismay of some countries in most of the East, the alliance, especially the United States and Germany, are totally opposed to giving Ukraine the green light to join NATO because that would bring the conflict closer to it. Russia. Article 5 on mutual assistance in the event of an attack on a member state haunts any idea of ​​Ukraine’s accession. Thus, a strong vocabulary is being sought that would send the message of commitment to support Ukraine and the prospect of joining when the war is over and indeed with a speedy process beyond the time-consuming phase of the MAR.

The second item on the agenda is the completion of the 2022 decision to expand the alliance by including Sweden, which has been obstructed so far T. Erdogan.

But Erdogan’s blackmail is not just about her Sweden.

In shaping the alliance’s strategic planning, Türkiye put forward two demands: not to mention it Cyprus And “Carefully” News received Turkish Straits.

The reasons for its attitude towards Cyprus are clear because it does not recognize the Republic of Cyprus, moreover, this is whether it is one of the permanent thorns in NATO’s cooperation with the European Union. Finally, according to our information, one of Solomon’s usual solutions has been found, in which not only Cyprus but all regions will be listed with coordinates. A compromise, as we know, was accepted by Cyprus (which, of course, does not participate in NATO).

On the subject of the Straits, the impasse continued until the last moment. It is clear that Türkiye wants to nibble on its petition Montreux Treaty To the “straits” and to keep in NATO the reference to the “Turkish straits” in order to emphasize its “sovereignty” over the straits whose status is determined by specific international texts and obligations. Although the term “Turkish Straits” was used in the past, there were also reactions from Greece to this request of Turkey, while Ankara also rejected the recent settlement proposal made by NATO measures that an asterisk should be placed specifying that “Turkey uses the term Turkish Straits.

But the great blackmail practiced by Erdogan with Sweden.

The trade-offs he seeks are, of course, not limited to his demands to abolish the rule of Swedish law to satisfy his own concept of fighting “terrorism”. Sweden lifted the arms embargo on Turkey, changed its anti-terrorism law, launched trials against PKK members, convicted alleged “terrorists” and extradited wanted men to Turkey. But it is very difficult to please Mr. Erdogan by banning gatherings of friends or sympathizers of the PKK, as long as they are not involved in criminal activity, and unable to override justice in the mass deportations of anti-regime activists in Turkey. .

The real purpose of blackmailing him Erdogan But Washington itself. To force President Biden to accept him, and to punish him for not receiving an invitation to White House Above all, cancel the ban on the sale of advanced weapons systems to Turkey.

But the bazaar was held before Mr. Erdogan locks him up too. Because the Americans have nothing to offer him. Even for the F-16s, President Biden can still only make a personal promise and commitment, as the resolution passes through Congress where, after the chair of the Senate Republicans, McConnell, and given the position of M. Menendez, there is no room for maneuver.

And so we are at the point where Congress is asking to discuss Sweden’s accession before approving the F-16s while Erdogan is asking for the opposite…

Backflips with conditional approval to begin the Swedish accession process is not out of the question, but again it would be very difficult to overcome congressional objections.

But Erdogan persisted until the last moment, infuriating the allies. He supports Ukraine joining NATO, which embarrasses the Americans, while, of course, he avoids saying so in front of Putin. Meanwhile, before arriving in Vilnius, he announced Putin’s visit to Ankara.

The outcome of this big bargain also affects the atmosphere in which the Mitsotakis-Erdogan meeting will be held for the first time in nearly a year and a half.

There is maturity in Athena so we don’t exaggerate our expectations. But the government sees an opportunity to restore communication channels, to reaffirm the willingness of both sides to continue No tension in the Aegean Seato further promote the so-called positive agenda and explore possibilities for resuming talks MOE But also in order to prepare for repeat investigations.

A process that will be very sensitive to external influences in the coming period and in the period in which it is an effort turkey To recover lost land in the Eastern Mediterranean with holes in Egypt and l Israel but also empowering Greek-American relations pose new challenges.