No one will pass the September “exams”.

By George Kraloglos

Who will fight precision? Ask energy, the answer will come from the government and the market in the September “exams”.

The government knows the questions and is preparing to “escape.”

How will he do this? He will (as he has done for years) try to draw our attention to the “good news” that comes with real estate. He will promise to solve the housing problem (after 10 years of general political inaction) and with “foreign direct investment” in real estate throughout Greece which seems (as they say) to be lasting and intensifying.

But will the government be convinced that opening up the economy to real estate and the rest of trade, along with tourism and services, is enough to stop the rocks that are coming in the very high prices of imported final products, as well as the high prices of imported final products? In the raw materials for production that we have left?

Nobody believes it. None of those who expect handouts from the 2024 surpluses we celebrate endlessly by praising our new tax-chasing system.

The reason is that those who are looking for some “light in the future” are lost in the darkness of the Commission’s final intentions on the possibilities of EU member states (especially those with a lot of debt like Greece) and on the limits of fiscal policy that will be imposed on us (because that’s what it’s all about) from 2025 onwards.

So, in September we will get our first taste of the European Commission’s intentions. The occasion is the preparations for the promotion and acceptance of our budget (for 2025) which will follow next month.

But this time the Commission will not show understanding for the needs we will raise as the limits of flexibility in budgets change finally before the end of the year.

Here is the weak point in the government’s moves in any attempt to maintain the “voucher” policy, even for another year.

Therefore, no one can be sure that the government, even if it supports its own fiscal initiatives (by anticipating surpluses), will get the EU to agree to implement interest rate policy to offset the costs that will arise from the (certain) rise in interest rates.

The market will now abandon any hint of price containment or more subtle fightback with price cuts as energy arrives at our doorstep very early next fall.

What are companies determined to do? They will put their energy back on the table with government as a starting point for any conversation about the cost of everyday products on the shelf.

This means (in practice) that from September onwards there will be nothing in a straight line from which expectations of better prices and stable inflation can emerge (even if 3% seems certain and somewhat manageable).

So everything is open for the September “exams” and for the oral lectures that the TIF will listen to and for the “written” ones (notes that will be presented to the finance ministers and at the meetings of the prime ministers) because the intention of the market is not to put precision on their shoulders, but even more to commit to fighting it without taking parallel measures, which can only be tax rate cuts. Happy autumn… and a better winter…

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