Oil: How electric cars are accelerating the end of the “black gold” era

There has been a lot of reflection at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai Slow rate of reduction in fossil fuel consumption To combat climate change. But one positive element that delegates can mention is A growing fleet of electric cars All over the world, which has already led to A sudden significant drop in demand.

the Increase sales of electric cars Recent years have led analysts to accelerate their predictions about when global oil consumption will peak Public subsidies And the Improve technology Helping consumers overcome the sometimes exorbitant prices of battery-powered cars, according to industry experts.

The International Energy Agency, which is based in Paris and includes 29 industrialized countries, expects global consumption oil will reach climax At the end of this decade, in 103 million barrels per dayAfter regular adjustments from its 2017 forecast of about 105 million barrels per day in 2040.

“The match that changed the situation was Political support Switching to electricity, which has significantly reduced demand for oil from the transportation sector. This was the main driver of increased global demand for “black gold,” said Apostolos Petropoulos, an energy modeling expert at the International Energy Agency.

Oil giant baby He presented his forecasts for the peak of global oil demand, while the two governments The United States of America as well as China – One of the two largest oil consuming countries in the world – They dropped Their expectations for domestic consumption. Transportation accounts for about 60% of global oil demand, while the United States accounts for only about 10%, according to the International Energy Agency. This share should decline, as the International Energy Agency expects electric cars to eliminate about 5 million barrels per day from global oil demand by 2030.

Not sure how sales will move

Global sales of electric vehicles currently stand at approx 13% Of all car sales is likely to rise to 40%-45% of the market by the end of the decadeAccording to the International Energy Agency. This is due to a combination of increasingly stringent performance standards Subsidies It was enacted by various governments around the world in the wake of the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above pre-industrial temperatures.

They include the latest support measures in the United States $7,500 tax credit To purchase a new electric car, which was approved last year and aims to compensate for the high prices stipulated by the US inflation reduction law.

While these numbers are significant, the IEA said electric vehicle sales would need to be higher — at about 70% of the market by 2030 — to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming.

It remains to be seen whether sales can reach these heights Uncertain.

Electric vehicle makers, including General Motors, Ford and Stellantis, have declined in recent weeks They delayed or withdrew plans to speed up production Amid rising labor costs and signs that higher interest rates are slowing growth in the United States.
However, in the long term, the falling cost of electric vehicle batteries has some researchers optimistic.

Cheaper in China

The pace of adoption of electric vehicles in the future will largely depend Their prices And the Availability of charging stations, according to industry experts. China has advantages on both counts.

Average cost of an electric car in China 31,165 euros ($33,964) by mid-2023, according to British research firm JATO Dynamics. Jato found that the cheapest electric car in China was 8% less expensive than the cheapest gasoline car. This is due to Huge government subsidies And the easy availability of rare earth elements, which are vital for the production of electric cars.

About a quarter of the market in China is electric vehicles and the country is expected to lead global growth.

Where the United States lags behind China

In the United States, by contrast, the average price of an electric vehicle has ended $53,000 According to automotive research firm Kelley Blue Book, approx $5000 more than a gas car.

United States of America They fall behind Also a lot regarding China in Total number of public charging stations. An industry-sponsored survey showed they have approx 52 thousand public charging stations, Europe about 400 thousand, and China about 1.2 million.

However, electric cars are expected to reach up to 50% of new car registrations in the United States by 2030According to the International Energy Agency, drivers are attracted to… Improve technologythe Low prices and the possibility of avoiding volatile prices in Gasoline pumps.

“A change on the policy side could delay the transition,” the IEA’s Petropoulos said, noting concerns from some electric car makers that next year’s US election could lead to a new set of policies. “But now the transformation is finally happening.”

Source: Reuters

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