Olive oil: first estimates of prices and production in the 2024-2025 season

The olive sector entered a state of near dormancy during this period, with olive oil trade operations throughout the country “frozen” and the market suspended.

At the same time, the price is declining, although it remains at high levels, with producers insisting on keeping quantities in their warehouses, in the hope that prices will rise further. However, the consumer also appears cautious, either buying according to their short-term needs or resorting to cheaper solutions such as sunflower oils.

As people in the market comment, during this period the industry uses its existing inventories, makes specific moves, and purchases the quantities it needs to cover the already low demand. At the same time, its eyes are turned to Spain, which will once again be a “pioneer” of developments, as messages from the largest producing country appear optimistic that the flowering process will proceed smoothly.

However, as they confirmed in OT, June forecasts on where production will move in Spain, Italy and Greece will also be what will determine prices for next season.

pending

Therefore, the production forecast for the new olive growing season will also be what will influence the price of olive oil, which currently stands at €7.5/kg per product.

“No one can judge in advance the developments until the beginning of the new season. Of course, Spanish sales and consumption figures will play an important role, but also the expected forecast from next month which will depend on the flowering of the trees, while with the fruiting date approaching at the end of May, we will be “Able to see what we can safely expect in the new olive growing season,” Manolis Giannoulis, president of the olive oil professional organization, tells OT.

As Mr. Giannoulis explains to us, there are sufficient reserves of olive oil to cover the market’s needs. It is also estimated that producers who still hold inventory in their warehouses will be forced to sell due to falling prices.

“The decline in prices is also certain for the next olive growing season unless the world comes to an end,” says the President of Interprofessional, noting to OT that all olive cultivation awaits Spain, which is a barometer of price formation, and urging “patience”. Until June,” that is, the period in which the safe forecast for the new season 2024-2025 will be.

“Freeze” commercial transactions

The photo from Crete was brought to OT by Myron Chelitzakis, head of small cooperatives at ETHEAS, assuring himself that developments in Spain will determine the course of olive oil.

He added: “All commercial transactions have been frozen throughout the country, as everyone is waiting for the large producer of olive oil, Spain, whose production this year is expected to reach 1.4 hectoliters. tons, meaning that it will double last year’s production. These are at least the messages that come from It is flowering so far,” Mr. Chelitzakis emphasized, explaining that in Spain during this period there are high temperatures and also muddy rains, which affects the flowering. “The combination of muddy rains and high temperatures is what destroyed Greek olive groves from Crete to Kavala last year,” he noted.

Although it is early for the estimates, it indicates that if Spanish production returns to good levels then producer prices will also fall.

“In the coming period we will have a complete picture of how production will ultimately develop. Even today there is an intense flowering of olives, but unfortunately there is a severe drought, and with 80% of Greek olive groves consisting of dry and non-irrigated cultivation, it is understood that there is a problem.” “. In fact, on the island of Crete, as Mr. Chiltzakis told us, according to data from the relevant directorate, the water level is low, and as a result “municipalities recommend closing the wells in the coming months.”

source: after that