Prigozhin: If Putin does not order his annihilation, he must “watch his back”

Only certain surface-to-air missiles, such as those in the Russian SS-20 system, can target Prigozhin’s aircraft, and they are available, except for the Russian military, to the GRU.

Stephen Bryan believes that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary army of the Russian Wagner Group, was killed in the wreckage of one of his private planes on August 23. There was initially some press speculation that he might not be among the passengers.

shot down by a missile

Brian is also highly suspicious that the plane was shot down, and not crashed due to a part-planted bomb or mechanical problem. But he isn’t sure that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the spectacular assassination of his ally-turned-rival.

Stephen Bryan, a former senior Pentagon official and defense industry executive, believes that Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, has the means and the incentive to operate with or without Putin’s prior approval.

He speaks in his webinar Center for Jewish Policy (Center for Jewish Policy) On Aug. 24, the author of Substack’s Weapons and Strategy column, whose work also appears in Asia Times, Newsweek, The Washington Times and elsewhere, said photos of the wreckage show shrapnel holes in the fin’s remains. “You won’t have shrapnel if it causes an explosion… you’ll get it from anti-aircraft missiles,” he said.

He also said that “the plane was flying at an altitude of 28,000 feet and kept going up.” Only certain surface-to-air missiles, such as those in the Russian SS-20 system — not to mention fighter jets — can be launched into the skies 100 miles northwest of Moscow. The regular Russian army has SS-20s in the crash area. “The GRU also has these elements,” he noted.

He promised him protection

My hypothesis is that GRU [Κύρια Διεύθυνση του Γενικού Επιτελείου των Ενόπλων Δυνάμεων της Ρωσικής Ομοσπονδίας] “He wanted to take back control from Wagner,” he added.

The mercenary group, which operates for the Kremlin in Africa and Syria, took the lead from the regular army in the nine-month battle of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. While losing many of its 50,000 troops, Wagner eventually repulsed a larger Ukrainian force.

in the same neighborhood

Prigozhin and his military organization embarrassed the regular army, and Putin, and undermined their power, with a short-lived insurrection and abortive march on Moscow in June. Then, in exchange for a choice between integration into the army or deployment to Belarus, “Putin promised Prigozhin protection.”

The two grew up in the same neighborhood of Leningrad (now St. Petersburg again). They have worked together in the past, and Prigozhin, who was jailed for years for the thief, used the catering empire as a way to build a private army useful to Putin.

Much stronger than the KGB

Bryan, who twice received the Pentagon’s highest civilian award, said former President Bill Clinton noted that “Putin keeps his promises…so if he promised to protect Prigozhin, he probably tried.”

At the time of the crash, the Russian president was in Kursk, celebrating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the battle of the same name by the Soviet Union against Nazi Germany during World War II. “He was rushed to Moscow… from there we know nothing.”

The GRU “is much stronger than the FSB [Ομοσπονδιακή Υπηρεσία Ασφαλείας, διάδοχος της, υπηρεσίας πληροφοριών/μυστικής αστυνομίας, KGB]He said. “It just can’t be compared to our DIA [Defense Intelligence Agency, Στρατιωτική Υπηρεσία Πληροφοριών]He is mostly analytical,” he noted. “The GRU is analytical and operational… and its special forces are large.”

His image has been tarnished

Eliminating Prigozhin, along with his mercenary second-in-command, Dmitry Utkin, a former Russian army officer and current founding leader of Wagner, helps restore Putin’s image, tarnished by her rebellion.

“But if it’s true that he didn’t do it…he should watch his back,” Brian noted.

the war

Meanwhile, Russia’s war against Ukraine may tilt in Russia’s favour. The Russian army has trained between 250,000 and 350,000 reservists.

Now it has about 100,000 [στρατιώτες] In Ukraine,” and with the Kiev offensive apparently failing, Brian doesn’t think Moscow needs Wagner’s mercenaries there.

Time is running against it

The fighting cost the Ukrainian forces “huge amounts of troops and equipment… including Western equipment”. As he said, the war is “becoming more difficult” for Ukraine.

And the longer it takes to negotiate a settlement, “the more territory Russia will occupy.” He believed that the talks would take place soon.

He also called the massive aid provided by the United States and its NATO allies to Ukraine unprecedented in modern times, and noted that “some argue it leaves us naked elsewhere in the world” rather than, for example, strengthening American deterrence against China and Iran. North Korea and other countries.

Poland’s ambitions

Tension between Poland and Belarus could be reduced if Wagner’s forces left there. Brian stated that the Polish forces are “much better than the Belarusian forces”.

Furthermore, “the Poles have their own ambitions, let’s be honest… If the Ukrainian government collapses for some reason, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Poland take over the Lviv region” from Ukraine “and the Russians don’t do much about it”. this”.