Putin is emerging from an unprecedented crisis with great damage – what will be his next steps

in MoscowEmergency security measures are still in effect, after Attempted uprising by fighters of the mercenary Wagner Groupwho openly challenged him Russian President Vladimir Putin In a move that sparked worldwide interest. At first glance, the situation may have calmed down, but most questions remain open.

What will the Russian president do next?

Within 24 hours, Mr Russian President Vladimir Putin He has faced his biggest challenge in the more than two decades since he came to power in Russia. The immediate danger to the Russian president may seem limited, but experts point out that Putin is not out From the crisis stronger, but it was hit hard.

The Russian president’s distaste for traitors was evident in his sternly patriotic speech televised on Saturday morning, in which he charged Yevgeny Prigozhin, for “backstabbing” and betrayal. Since then, Vladimir Putin has not appeared in public, and a new presidential speech is not expected in the near future. In a pre-recorded interview for state television on Sunday (which apparently took place before the Wagner Group mutiny), Putin expressed confidence in the progress of the war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, security measures in Moscow are still in place, but it is unclear if the Russian president is in the capital at the moment. Some expect Putin to strike back in some way — either militarily, in Ukraine, or against people who didn’t support him, inside Russia. Polish MP Radek Sikorski told the BBC that the Russian leader is “likely to purge those he considers vacillating” – meaning his regime is expected to become “both more authoritarian and more violent”.

What will Prigozhin do in Belarus?

The man behind the riot is at large. Although he attempted to overthrow the Russian military leadership, the charge of armed rebellion against him was dropped. However, not all details of the deal reached between the Kremlin and Wagner are known. Russian analysts do not expect Prigozhin to disappear quietly.

The leader of the mercenary army, who was a very popular figure to tens of thousands of fighters in Ukraine, was also someone in Putin’s inner circle for a long time. Prigozhin has done the Kremlin’s “dirty work” for years – from the war in Syria to the fighting in Ukraine in 2014, when Crimea was annexed.

Since he has publicly defied Putin, questions have been raised about the assurances he was given about his security and his future role. Questions that remain unanswered. International observers wonder if the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, will be able to “contain” Prigozhin — assuming he does indeed go to Minsk. It is also unclear if other Wagner members will follow him, as well as to what extent he might pose a threat to Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.

From Putin’s chef, dissident

Before Saturday’s events, tens of thousands of Wagner Group mercenaries led the war in Ukraine. However, Wagner’s days as an independent army were over.

the Prigozhin and his troops resisted Their merger was severely pressured by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Indeed, the Kremlin’s intention to do so is seen as a major factor in changing the dynamics between Wagner and the Kremlin.

However, tensions eased on Saturday. Prigozhin seems to be heading away from the Russian Federation and many are wondering what will happen to his fighters.

Charges against those involved in the rebellion appear to have been dropped. Videos on social media showed Wagner soldiers leaving Rostov, which they had captured. The Voronezh governor, located halfway between Rostov and Moscow, announced that Wagner’s troops would also leave his region.

However, it is not clear whether they would simply cooperate and integrate into the regular Russian army, or even whether regular Russian soldiers would henceforth willingly serve alongside them or return to the current war zones of Ukraine, as suggested by Russian state media. Some analysts worried that militants might follow Prigozhin West if he went to Belarus.

Who is the Wagner Group and how is it affecting the war in Ukraine?

The mercenary group has provided some of the most successful shock troops on Ukraine’s front lines, although many of its fighters come from prisons and have been attracted by the promise of freedom to serve on the front lines. They were heavily involved in the capture of the city of Bakhmut by Russia, for example. Russia claims, so far, that Prigozhin’s rebellion had no impact on Ukraine’s war so far.

However, there is no doubt that the Russian forces are aware of what happened and the news may be discouraging. Some believe that there may be infighting between rival units in the coming days, after the events of Saturday.

In addition to worrying about the risk of Russia escalating its operations in Ukraine, on the other side of the border, military leaders will look for opportunities that might arise from instability.

Kievan forces launched a counterattack to recapture the territories captured by the Russians and believed that unrest within the Russian leadership provided a “rift of opportunity”.

The former US ambassador to Ukraine, Bill Taylor, told the BBC that Ukrainian forces were in an “privileged position” to exploit tactical weaknesses exposed by the sudden movement of Wagner fighters.

What the United States already knew

While Prigozhin’s rebellion seemed to take the Kremlin by surprise, American intelligence agencies had already detected signs of a Wagner plan of action. And according to US media, President Joe Biden, as well as senior congressional officials, have been informed since the beginning of the week.

US intelligence agencies found the mercenary leader stockpiling weapons, ammunition and other equipment near the border with Russia, according to CNN. According to the New York Times, Biden spoke to the leaders of France, Germany and Britain as concerns arose that Putin’s control of Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal could be completely lost amid the chaos.

American intelligence chiefs had for months watched the rising tension between Prigozhin and Russian defense officials as the intelligence was led to conclude that the war in Ukraine was not going well for both the Wagner Group and Russia’s regular army.

Meanwhile, The Washington Post reported that there was a possibility that the US had realized as early as mid-June that Prigozhin was up to something.

A major impetus for this was a June 10 decree by the Russian Defense Ministry, which ordered all volunteers—like the Wagner Group—to sign contracts with the government—which would also constitute a buyout of Prigozhin’s mercenary forces.

Officials told the newspaper that “there are several indications that something is going on in the leadership,” however, the exact nature of Prigozhin’s plans did not become clear until shortly before the mobilization began.

Officially, he informed President Putin through his intelligence that Prigozhin was making his own plans. It was not clear exactly when he was told this, but it was “certainly more than 24 hours ago,” the newspaper said, citing a US official as saying on Saturday.

What do the Russian people think?

Putin’s rhetoric to the people of his country, while the crisis continues, is seen as an indication of how seriously he views the threat, but also of his need to impose himself on the Russian public.

“Many members of the elite will personally blame Putin for the fact that things went this far and there was no timely reaction from the president,” Tatyana Stanovaya, a prominent Russian analyst, wrote on Telegram. “Therefore, this is a big blow to Putin’s positions,” he noted.

Although it is difficult to draw conclusions about Russian public opinion as a whole, officials in the country may worry about images of citizens applauding Wagner’s organs in Rostov as the troops left the city. During the rebellion, Rostov effectively came under Wagner’s control. Its members were greeted by a crowd of citizens who cheered, applauded and took pictures. It should be noted, however, that on Saturday some residents apparently rushed out of town by train just after Wagner’s arrival.

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