Saudi Arabia is pushing for a “Plan B” that excludes Israel from the main US deal

Editing – Editing: Stelios Vassillodis

Riyadh is seeking to reach a less ambitious agreement with Washington in light of the absence of a ceasefire in Gaza and Netanyahu’s resistance to establishing a Palestinian state.

The United States and Saudi Arabia have established a set of security and technology exchange agreements aimed at linking them to a broader settlement in the Middle East that includes Israel and the Palestinians.

However, in the absence of a ceasefire in Gaza and in the face of intense resistance from the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu to the creation of a Palestinian state – and its apparent determination to launch an attack on Rafah – the Saudis are pressing for an agreement. The more limited Plan B, which excludes Israelis.

Under this option, the United States and Saudi Arabia would sign agreements on bilateral defense cooperation, US assistance in building the Saudi nuclear energy industry, and high-level engagement in artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies.

It is expected that a proposal will be presented to Israel to normalize diplomatic relations with Riyadh in exchange for Israel accepting a two-state solution to the Israeli-Arab conflict that has been ongoing for 76 years. But according to Riyadh’s “Plan B” proposal, the completion of the US-Saudi agreements will not depend on the approval of the Netanyahu government.

“There must be room for an alternative deal model, so the relationship with the United States should not be hostage to the whims of Israeli politics or Netanyahu,” said Firas Maqsad, senior director of strategic communication at the Middle East Institute.

The Biden administration will not be able to complete the historic regional settlement it seeks amid the ruins of the war in Gaza, at least not immediately, but it will work to solidify a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia that will provide a counterweight to growing Chinese and Russian influence. . But it is not at all clear that the administration – let alone Congress – would accept such a “less-for-less” outcome.

In statements in Riyadh last week, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken continued to link the US-Saudi agreement to the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations and progress towards establishing a Palestinian state.

“I think the work that Saudi Arabia and the United States are doing together regarding the deals may be very close to completion,” Blinken told the World Economic Forum in the Saudi capital. But moving forward with normalization will require two things: calm in Gaza and a reliable path to establishing a Palestinian state.

But there are signs of hesitation in the Biden camp. US officials who were adamant last week that US-Saudi deals were closely linked to the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations and a two-state solution have declined to commit to the issue in recent days.

One of the goals of Blinken’s trip to Riyadh was to finalize the US-Saudi agreements, which administration officials described as almost complete. However, they clarified that no final conclusion has been reached. “We are close, but progress has not been made to cross the finish line that the Saudis had hoped for during Blinken’s visit,” said Maqsad, who was in Riyadh last week.

Initially at least, the US-Saudi agreement was intended to continue regardless of developments in Israel and the occupied territories, but it included a formal offer for Israel to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia – a key goal of Israeli foreign policy – in exchange for “irreversible” moves towards establishing… A Palestinian state on the territories of Gaza and the West Bank. The United States hopes that such an offer will become an issue of political contention in Israel, especially in the elections that would follow if Netanyahu’s government collapses.

According to informed sources, the nuclear arm of the US-Saudi agreement could allow Riyadh to build a plant to convert enriched uranium dust into gas, but Saudi Arabia will not initially be able to enrich uranium gas on its territory, which is a major limitation in the ability to make a nuclear bomb. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman previously raised fears of nuclear proliferation in the region, saying that Riyadh would obtain nuclear weapons if Iran developed nuclear weapons.

A separate text is expected to include a defense agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia. “What the Saudi side is asking for, at least, is something similar to what the United States shares with South Korea — a more stringent formal commitment to the kingdom’s regional defense,” Maksad said.

The third part of the deal will include easing US export controls to Saudi Arabia including computer chips used in artificial intelligence development tools, a key element of Saudi Arabia’s ambitions to become a high-tech hub in the region.

The three parts of the draft deal include providing US strategic assistance vital to Saudi Arabia’s security. Instead of progress toward Israeli-Palestinian peace, Saudi Arabia presents a purely bilateral agreement as a victory for the United States in its efforts to limit Iranian expansionism and Washington’s “great power rivalry,” especially with China.

Riyadh has steadily increased the volume of weapons it purchases from China as it refocused its strategic bets in recent years. The Biden administration was surprised in March last year when Saudi Arabia and Iran announced that they had signed an agreement to restore relations mediated by China. Fearful of losing his dominant role as a major power in the Middle East, Biden has abandoned his efforts to sideline Prince Mohammed bin Salman over atrocities (such as the 2018 killing of dissident Saudi journalist and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi). The American approach culminated in the US President’s visit to Jeddah in 2022.

Kirsten Fontenrose, a former senior director at the US National Security Council, described the nuclear, defense and artificial intelligence deals as “a product of Biden’s trip to the kingdom.”

“The agreement was drawn up on the assumption that the Saudis would put normalization of relations with Israel on the table,” Fontenrose said. But the Israeli government currently attaches more importance to preventing the creation of a Palestinian state than to normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the agreement being discussed now is a bilateral agreement.”

However, the White House is reluctant to concede much in the absence of a normalization agreement that has the potential to change the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Opposition will be stronger in Congress, which is more focused on the kingdom’s troubled human rights record, including Khashoggi’s killing.

It was recently revealed that young women’s rights activist, Manahil Al-Otaibi, was secretly sentenced in Saudi Arabia to 11 years in prison by an anti-terrorism court after being arrested on charges of “choosing unacceptable clothing and supporting women’s rights.”

“If the agreement does not include commitments from Saudi Arabia regarding its relations with China and the Iran deal – for example – in exchange for a security guarantee, Congress will ask: Where is the benefit for the United States?” Fontenrose said. However, Maqsad believes that the “great power competition” argument for signing a deal with the Saudis should be enough for the administration to convince Congress.

“If we can engage Saudi Arabia in a strategic alliance with the United States in a way that marginalizes Russia and China in this part of the world, then this is a major victory for this administration,” he said. He added, “This is something that will enhance, in the foreseeable future, the position of the Middle East in the American sphere.”

But even if that were enough for the White House, it certainly would not be enough for the US Senate – and without its approval, any US security guarantees and promises of technological assistance are likely to be short-lived. “Without Senate approval, this will not start, and without the Israeli part, approval will not be a foregone conclusion,” said Matt Doss, a former foreign policy adviser to the senator and executive vice president at the Bernie Sanders Center for International Policy.

He concluded by saying: “I am still puzzled by the administration’s apparent obsession with this deal, given all the obvious negatives and the fact that we are not making a deal with Saudi Arabia but with a corrupt and mentally ill man.”

All of the above appears to reinforce the theory that one of the motives for the October 8 attack on Israel by Hamas – and perhaps the most important – was to obstruct the impending Saudi recognition agreement for Israel, which did not include a clause for “irreversible” moves to establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.

Source: The Guardian