The first half of the future purchase banks

By Apostolos Manthos

The financial results of all four systemic banking houses have been completed for the first half of 2023 with the numbers generally showing strong fundamentals, full balance sheet consolidation and a future… However, economic performance, despite impressive results, has mostly moved above Analysts’ estimates almost did not give the bullish pace that the market expected, which kept the Banks Index “frozen” below the important resistance area from 1125 to 1100 units. . Of course, many will be quick to point out that the market may have discounted a large portion of these new financials since the percentage gains given by banking stocks since the beginning of the year are particularly high with Piraeus explosively performing +142% while National Bank, Alfa and Eurobank fall respectively at +69%, +55% and +49%, respectively. However, the upward trajectory of both equity and profitability in the next time period is very likely to refute them after a healthy downturn and due to a short-term seasonal decline, pushing the Banks Index above 1230 points or +14% from current price levels.

Starting with individual schematic analyzes of n banks Eurobank (EURO) with a capitalization of 5.8 billion euros appears on the three-day price chart in an attempt to hold above the Vwap for the last 129 days at 1.5310 euros. Refusal to hold would pave the way for a bearish contact with the strong support area at 1.45 EUR. On the other hand, however, the non-bearish crossover data will once again push the share price towards the elevated area from 1.6570 to 1.72 euros. Let me remind you that in the first half of 2023 Eurobank achieved a solid profit amounting to 684 million euros with its capital increased to 7 billion euros, which gives a very good multiple of book value to buyers at 0.82. The group’s deposits amounted to 55.89 billion euros, while the NPEs index is now at 5.2%, revealing the extent of the merger. It should also be noted that at the beginning of September, Eurobank will buy back 1.4% of the shares from the Financial Stability Fund, thus unburdening the additional efforts to raise the stake to 2 euros.

the National Bank (NGE) with a capital of €5.76 billion is now far from the first Eurobank. Here, H1 2023 earnings are found at €530m with equity in excess of €7bn, giving a P/BV of 0.82 which is also beneficial for buyers. At the same time, the group’s deposits returned to an upward trajectory, approaching 55.67 billion euros. NPEs decreased to 5.4%. Graphically, since the middle of last June, the stock appears to be moving in the short-term ascending channel “C”, where the side minimum reaches 6.12 euros. A downside breakout of the formation would have the potential to take the stock below €6 and towards €5.86. However, in the opposite case, if the downside of the channel is maintained, the stock will move towards the first bullish target of €6.70.

A big surprise was waiting for us in the results of the first quarter of 2023 Piraeus (PEIR), as the bank managed to drop its NPEs index at 5.5%, thus leaving miles behind its “problematic” past. At the same time, it raised its own funds to €5.9 billion, which, according to the €4.33 billion capitalization held on the Hellenic Stock Exchange’s board of directors, gives it a multiple/value added of 0.73. Profits for the first half amounted to 299 million euros, while total deposits amounted to 58.3 billion euros. On the now 2-day price chart, we see that the stock is making a consolidating sideways movement “digest” above the previous strong resistance at €3.40. In the technical data indicating a decline in the stock by 3.40 euros, we should expect a decline to 3.22 to 3.19 euros.

Close with her Alpha Bank (ALPHA), which now ranks fourth with a market capitalization of €3.65 billion, its own funds at €6.1 billion and a P/BV at its “cheaper” number of 0.60. The group showed a strong first half with a profit of 302.6 million euros and an increase in deposits by 1.6 billion euros to 51.8 billion euros. The gray point that is expected to “bleach” is the proportion of NPEs, which is higher than the rest of the banks at 7.6%. Technically, the stock, after the upward breach of the €1.513 resistance, made an upward swing to €1.682. Somewhere in there, however, a ‘lead’ was saved for the buyers, which triggered a re-entry of the €1.56-€1.50 support. Any confirmed downside breach of the mentioned level will “break” the upside of the short-term picture, indicating a visit to 1,472 EUR.

* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis and investment strategy

** Republished from “Kefalio” newspaper.