The presence of Russian mercenaries in America

By Nikitas Simos

Although unsuccessful, the Wagner Rebellion in Russia represented an important event for the future of the Company’s relations with the Russian state and for its missions abroad. The consequences of the insurgency for the regions of the Middle East and Africa where Wagner has been active over the past ten years to advance Russian military, economic, and strategic interests remain unclear. It is estimated that more than 10,000 of its members are based in Syria and the African continent, mainly in Mali, the Central African Republic, Libya and Sudan. In a recent statement, the Russian Foreign Minister reassured Russia’s allies in Africa and the Middle East that the Russian forces would remain in place and Wagner’s mercenaries would not withdraw.

Libya

Libya remains a strategic priority for Moscow and Wagner’s strong presence there has continued for more than 5 years, supporting General Haftar’s forces in the eastern part of the country. The company’s presence remains large with about 1,000 employees, although 1,200 of its members have been transferred to the Ukrainian fronts to reinforce its forces there. This is one of the most important presences of the Russian missions in Africa. However, it is not surprising if we take into account the strategic importance of Libya for Russia due to its geographical proximity and relations with the countries of the Sahel region, as well as the fact that its strategic geographical location greatly facilitates Russian policy in the Mediterranean.

Since Prigozhin’s rebellion upsets the balance between the Russian state and mercenary groups, it is only natural that everyone’s attention is focused on the points where these two factors intersect. It did not go unnoticed that drones struck the al-Qaruba air base in eastern Libya, southeast of Benghazi, where Wagner recruits are believed to be based. Although the plane’s point of origin is unknown, it is estimated that the event has nothing to do with Moscow’s attempt to control the company’s leaders, in the countries where it operates. It is also rumored that the Syrian forces cooperated with the Russian forces to suppress a rebellion in Syria by Wagner’s mercenaries there.

Yes

Mali’s military regime, under Wagner’s influence, has called for the French army to withdraw from the country by February 2022. France has an estimated 5,000 personnel in the Sahel region, demonstrating the importance it places on operations there. Last month, Mali’s military junta also called for the withdrawal of the UN peacekeeping force, numbering between 12,000 and 15,000, which had been there for 10 years. The French ambassador to Mali, de Rivière, said that since the time of Wagner’s presence in the region, human rights violations have increased dramatically, which is why, in June, the UN secretary recommended to the Security Council on the eve of a peacekeeping operation. force for another year. The French presence, like that of the United Nations, serves the purpose of controlling the northern and central part of Mali, where Islamic fundamentalists have a strong presence. At this time, the regime depends, more than ever, on the presence of Wagner, who also offers his praetorian services. It is also important that the company is paid for its services in gold, as Mali is the third largest producer of gold in the world, with an annual production of up to 50 tons.

Central African Republic

Of all the countries where Wagner is present, it is most involved in the Central African Republic. In addition to providing support in various conflicts and military training to local forces, the company and its subsidiaries are involved in various government activities, which range from security management to some basic bureaucratic functions. At the same time, other entities related to the company received concessions on an industrial scale in the mining sector (gold, diamonds, copper) and controlled the country’s media. Thus, given all of Wagner’s ties to local government, it is likely that Moscow will not replace the company with one of its own, but rather the local leadership with those close to it, or change the brand as well. According to the latest information, there is likely to be a periodic replacement of the company’s personnel (Reuters), with several flights departing from Bangui. The Central African Republic, due to its geographical location in the center of the continent, is of great geostrategic importance for Russia and, in general, for any power that controls it. It is appropriate at this point to note that Turkey has signed a defense agreement with the G-5 countries in the Sahel region, a fact that will allow it, given the circumstances, to have a military presence in the region with obvious benefits.

Sudan

Wagner appeared in Sudan in 2017 and since then has been involved in gold exploration while developing its contacts with the head of the RSF Dagalo, while in 2022 the concerned general visited Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine, and he proposed the establishment of a Russian naval base in the Red Sea. However, this proposal was not approved by the Sudanese head of state.

In the conflict between Sudan’s generals, Wagner supports the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and is accused of smuggling gold and supplying missiles that are used against the central government. A few days ago, the Secretary-General of the United Nations warned of the outbreak of a full-scale civil war in Sudan, which would destabilize the greater region.

As it appears, Wagner’s presence in Africa and the Middle East is being reshaped in the wake of its leader’s rebellion. It is no coincidence that the Russian president said in his statements last week that Wagner does not exist as a mercenary company, because such a corporate structure is not recognized by Russian law. In his earlier statements, he had considered Wagner’s mercenaries to have been seduced, while at first he called them traitors. The tension and arrogance of the Russian president’s actions and statements are evident.

It is very likely that changes in Wagner’s leadership and structures will follow, while Prigozhin will be ignored, and it will take a new name, or even split into smaller entities, in the countries in which it operates. But mercenary activity abroad as an important tool of the Kremlin’s foreign policy will not be abolished, and mercenaries controlled by Russia will continue their operations.

* Nikitas Simos is an economist and geopolitical analyst