The surprises of the European elections

By Manolis Kapsis

In theory, the upcoming elections are boring. It's boring. Will anything change? There is no doubt that Mitsotakis will continue to rule, perhaps unopposed. That's why we will break every abstinence record. (Participation in the last European elections was 58% and in the last national elections 53%. If the participation in these European elections exceeds 50%, it is a huge victory.)

But there is, as usual, a distance from theory to practice. In the end I bet the polls of the European elections will hide the surprises. That is why the Prime Minister has started the campaign now. He has already started campaigning because – for example – he and his party will be the first victims of Prohibition. The voter rarely goes to the ballot box to confirm his choice, but easily gets out of bed to express his anger or his discomfort, or to send a message of disapproval or irritation. One is a prisoner.

As much has been collected recently, from Tempi to Assimakopoulou's precise passing and marriage of same-sex couples, it is quite logical that Mr. Mitsotakis does his best to “clean up shop.”

Why would you stay around 35% and another drop below 30% – write 2 in front of what they are telling the government – and have the opposition shout at you that you have lost the trust of the citizens. . Mobilize MPs for new reforms.

Yes, New Democracy got a good 33% in the last European elections, but compared to the brutal 40% of the last national elections, no doubt. Compared to the last election result, we count how many points the drop is, not how close or how far the New Democracy percentage is from previous European elections. Entries will be counted.

Stefanos Kasselakis, a good citizen too, was heading for a major defeat until yesterday, while the guys on the other hand were preparing for the second round. Don't see them silent and the syriza shop empty in the breakfast bars. They do not protest, do not express disagreements and objections, avoid statements, so that Kasselakis does not undermine them. In other words, take full and personal responsibility for negative consequences. But I doubt they will be disappointed. Not that Syriza will split, but it won't go for the massive defeat that pollsters predicted. As the leader and a certain audience find his rhythm.

After all, he also will not compare his percentage with the new conditions – 23% in the previous European elections, but with the disastrous 17.8% that Alexis Tsipras gave him.

All this, of course, needs to be confirmed. Even if a small movement is visible, if Kasselaki's party gets close to single digits and is also below PASOK, the celebration will no doubt resume.

PASOK also has surprises in store for us. “Let's go fast” and “we've got second place” are no longer plausible, and the latest findings from opinion polls must have scared some people in Harilao Trikoupi. 11% of the national elections were clearly not successful, the rest were created expectations and a percentage of these levels would be interpreted as a major disappointment of the leader. Recent pirouettes with private universities did not excite even party officials and the phenomenon of the first question of the tax by Konstantinopoulos and Gianakopoulos did not go unnoticed. If he does not win over SYRIZA, who themselves say they are in turmoil in PASOK, and he shows no clear signs of increasing his power, Aeolos' bag for PASOK is also opened.

After he reassured those in the party who believed that “Nikos was not pulling.” Note that these elections will also have the volatile factor of Andreas Lovertos. Even the lowest flight to the Democratic Party, more and more, will cut something from his former party.

The winners of this conflict are predicted to be Velopoulos and the KKE, perhaps Natsios, who is not listening but working underground (hand in hand with the Church). However, the activities of these parties have not significantly affected the political scene. They are important and interesting because they capture voter trends and allow us to better explain the climate in society, but their proportions do not produce governance implications. Unless it affects other players. Kyriakos Velopoulos and Natsios are important, only to the extent that they cut forces from the new democracy. The KKE only plays a role as a receiver of disaffected former SYRIZA voters.

But of course the seemingly boring nature of these elections and the fact that we'll be debating them for so long also adds to the suspense.