The War in Ukraine: Secret NATO Documents Leaked

Confidential documents outlining secret US and NATO plans have been leaked on Telegram.

Secret war documents detailing the secret plans of the Americans and NATO Senior Biden administration officials said it was to bolster the Ukrainian military in the face of a planned attack on Russia that was posted this week on social media channels.

The Pentagon is investigating who may have been behind the leak of the documents, which appeared on Twitter and Telegram, a platform with more than half a billion users and widely available in Russia.

“incomplete” classified documents

Military analysts reported to The New York TimesAnd The documents appear to have been altered in places from their original form, overestimating the number of dead in the Ukrainian war and underestimating the death toll of Russian forces.

Analysts said the revisions could indicate disinformation efforts by Moscow. But what was revealed in the original documents, which appear as graphic images with expected weapons deliveries, troop and battalion strengths and other plans, represents a major US intelligence breach in the Ukraine aid effort.

Biden officials have been working to push them away, but were unsuccessful as of Thursday night. “We are aware of reports of social media posts, and the department is looking into the matter,” said Sabrina Singh, the Pentagon’s deputy spokeswoman.

It is difficult to assess the impact of publishing documents

The documents do not provide specific battle plans, such as how, when and where Ukraine plans to launch its offensive, which US officials say is likely to happen within the next month or so. Since the documents are five weeks old, they contain what Ukrainian forces might need for the campaign.

But to the trained eye of a Russian military planner, field general or intelligence analyst, the documents undoubtedly provide many clues and tantalizing information. The documents list, for example, the percentage of spending on HIMARS – US-supplied Highly Mobile Artillery Rocket Systems that can launch attacks against targets such as ammunition depots, infrastructure and concentrations of forces from a long distance. The Pentagon has not publicly stated how quickly Ukrainian forces used the HIMARS munitions — the documents do.

Analysts said on Friday that it may be difficult to assess the impact of the release of the documents on frontline battles now and in the months ahead. The latest Russian offensive itself has struggled to make gains in eastern Ukraine, and Western analysts debate whether the Russian army, having suffered heavy losses, is capable of launching another offensive or resisting a Ukrainian offensive.

It is unclear how the documents ended up on social media

It was not clear how these documents ended up on social media. But military analysts said that pro-Russian government channels share and distribute the briefing slides. Analysts have warned that documents released by Russian sources could be selectively modified to provide misleading information about the Kremlin.

“Whether or not these documents are authentic, people should be wary of anything that Russian sources publish,” said Michael Kaufman, director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Virginia.

For example, one slide reported that between 16,000 and 17,500 Russian soldiers were killed, while Ukraine suffered as many as 71,500 soldiers killed. The Pentagon and other analysts estimated that Russia suffered much greater losses, with around 200,000 dead and wounded, while Ukraine had more than 100,000 dead and wounded.

What are confidential documents?

However, analysts said parts of the documents appeared to be authentic and would provide Russia with valuable information, such as timelines for arms and troop deliveries, build-up numbers of Ukrainian forces and other military details.

The document, titled Top Confidential, presents the “State of Dispute as of March 1st”. That day, Ukrainian officials were at a US base in Wiesbaden, Germany, for the war games sessions, and a day later, General Mark A. Miley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and General Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Commander of Allied Forces in Europe visited the sessions.

The exact number of Ukrainian forces has been released

Another document includes columns listing Ukrainian forces’ units, equipment, and training, with timelines from January to April.

The document contains a summary of the 12 combat brigades being assembled, nine of which are apparently being trained and supplied by the United States and other NATO allies.

Of those nine brigades, documents say six will be ready by March 31 and the rest by April 30. Analysts said a Ukrainian brigade had between 4,000 and 5,000 soldiers.

The delivery date of the equipment has been leaked from the West

The document said that equipment delivery times will affect training and readiness to meet the schedule. The document said that the total equipment required for the nine brigades is more than 250 tanks and more than 350 motorized vehicles.

The fact that the documents could be released on one of the more widely circulated social media channels, and possibly end up in the hands of Russian officials, is a major coup for Moscow at a time when Russia appeared to be trailing the US in gathering intelligence on Ukraine. Fearing that sharing their operational plans might also expose their vulnerabilities and discourage continued U.S. support, the Ukrainians kept them under close guard, even as U.S. intelligence gathered minute details of what the Kremlin was up to and what Russian leaders had planned.

Intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the United States eased significantly last fall, and the two countries are working closely together on options for a Ukrainian attack. But a leak of this kind, posted on social media and available all over the world, would certainly damage the exchange of information between Ukraine and the United States.