The war in Ukraine: the situation in Bakhmut is particularly critical

British intelligence warns that “the main supply route of Ukrainian forces west of Bakhmut is under an immediate and very serious threat” and that a large part of the more hardened Ukrainian forces is in danger of being surrounded by the attackers. [REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach]

In weekly summaries of military developments in Ukraine By British intelligence, the tone was usually set by references to his successes Kyiv and the blows he received Russian forces.

However, yesterday’s review had some bad news for advocates of a particularly bloody fight Bahamutin eastern Ukraine, where war efforts on both sides have been concentrated for eight months.

The related report stated that “Russia has made additional gains and may have already penetrated the city center, while at the same time occupying the western bank of the Bahamut River.” Indeed, British intelligence warns that “the main supply route for Ukrainian forces, Corridor 0506 to the west of Bakhmut, is under an immediate and very serious threat,” meaning that a large portion of the most combat-ready Ukrainian forces is in danger. from the besieging of the attackers.

Last month, Volodymyr Zelensky ordered the defense of Bakhmut to continue, despite the heavy cost, believing that if the besieged city fell, it would be easier for the Russian army to advance on the two major urban centers still held by the Kiev government in the east. Donetsk region and the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

But the Ukrainian president hinted on Wednesday that he would order a withdrawal if his forces defending the city faced an imminent threat of encirclement. However, the representative of the Eastern Command of the Ukrainian Army, Serhiy Tserivati, claimed yesterday that “the situation in Bakhmut is difficult,” but “the enemy has not achieved any strategic success.”

The Russian cordon has also tightened around Avdiivka, a city south of Bakhmut and close to Donetsk, the capital of the province of the same name, which has been in the hands of Russian-speaking separatists since 2014. For their part, the Ukrainians have bombed Russian-held cities on the southern front, especially Melitopol, the largest Russian-controlled city in Zaporizhia Oblast.

The Russian army is close to capturing the city, British intelligence estimates – Ankara fears an escalation of the war in the coming weeks.

The Ukrainian artillery operations are a harbinger of the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south, and possibly also on the eastern front. Ukraine’s presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolak, estimated that the leaking of classified documents to The New York Times about US aid to the Ukrainian army serves Russia’s disinformation campaign, which aims to make a Ukrainian counterattack difficult.

In Ankara, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, during a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, expressed his government’s fear of an escalation of the war during the spring. For his part, the head of Russian diplomacy said, in response to a question about the possibility of his meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, that Russia has never been negative towards any “serious proposal” for dialogue.

Chinese position

The Ukrainian was the focus of French President Emmanuel Macron’s three-day visit to China, which ended yesterday, and his consultations with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Asked if he feared France and the European Union more broadly. He could convince the Chinese leader to change his position on Ukraine, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov replied: “China is a very serious power, a very big one that has its own dominant position. It is not the kind that quickly changes its positions under external pressure.