Posted by Costas Stopas
Tsipras out…
While it is difficult to predict whether New Democracy will succeed in securing independence in the next elections (re-elections with an enhanced proportion), what seems more difficult is that Alexis Tsipras will be the next Prime Minister.
This, of course, reassures a large part of the anti-Sriza front that has been building over the past decade, creating a relaxation of reactions that favor leaks to the right, center and undecided …
In Metron Analysis’ recent survey for Mega, there are two pieces of news of interest:
The first is that in the reduction, the difference between New Democracy and Syriza exceeds 10 points. When this happens a few months before the elections, it reflects a unified situation…
The second piece of news is the result of comparing this year’s Voting Intent numbers with those of exactly twelve months ago when ND was showing halting erosion and signs of recovery and SYRIZA’s marginal improvement which does not portend reversals…
PASOK-KINAL shows improvement compared to last year but it is in a downward trend compared to the past months.
In more detail on the voting intention between October 2021 and October 2022, New Democracy jumped from 28% to 28.9%, SYRIZA from 18.3% to 20.9%, while KINAL from 9.8 to 11.3%.
This image shows a consolidation of the political scene in the past year and a few months before the elections.
My assessment of the political situation was comprehensively formulated by an executive of a large company whom I met a few days ago in the context of information, when I asked him if he was disturbed by political developments and the possibility of Syriza’s return. …
“The common denominator of all existing scenarios and polls is that Tsipras will not be the next prime minister. From there, it all plays out.
Can ND If he succeeds in gaining self-reliance, he may not … If he fails to secure self-reliance, he will be compelled to co-judge either with KINAL or with SYRIZA, if circumstances so require…
If there is a joint government of ND with another party the chances of the prime minister being from the first party are greater. However, even if this is not the case, no major changes are expected in the economic and general strategy pursued by the state in recent years … ”
It seems that the renegotiation of the defense agreement with France and the armaments programs that Mr. Tsipras mentioned in recent days, as well as the renegotiation of projects that will be included in the European development package, have annoyed more than those who were comfortable…
Mr. Tsipras’ weakness as a leader of the center-left and therefore the center-left itself is that he cannot “speak” to the centrists and part of the center-right without the approach from which the center is unlikely to walk. To receive the characteristics of the majority…
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