Twelve months of hell, ahead of us

Written by Kostas Stupas

1) Twelve months of Hell, because…

Older people (not very old) will remember the days before Greece went bankrupt, in the fall of 2009. In the first half of 2010, Greece was forced to replace a few tens of billions of bonds from the public debt that was due. Of bonds from the public debt that was due, Greece was also forced to replace several tens of billions of bonds from the public debt that was due. The markets at the beginning of winter said no… We all know the sequel.

Of course, the United States is not Greece. In addition to the largest economy, the most powerful war machine on the planet, and the powerful political capital of a rich democracy in which most of the planet’s population would like to be born and live, the dollar also has the largest reserve currency… Many believe that the dollar is the most powerful weapon of the United States and the West.

In the next 12 months, about 8.3 trillion will mature. Dollars of US government debt securities. This is the largest amount ever due, and double what was due every year four years ago.

Based on the trajectory of the public deficit, another 2 trillion will be added in the coming months. dollar. To the above we must add another 1 trillion. Dollars spent on interest.

So, in the next 12 months, the US Treasury will need to raise more than $11 trillion. dollars, which represents more than 30% of the US public debt.

In a period when monetary policy is tightened rather than easing, the markets should absorb this money.

Based on common sense, there are three possible scenarios.

1^the Can’t find it…

2^the He is paying extremely high interest rates to find them.

3^the Rather, it is to find an international system of liquidity but to dry it up.

In general, in the first scenario, the United States goes bankrupt and drags the global economy into adventures. in 2^the The scenario in which they don’t go bankrupt is that they pay huge costs and push the economy into recession and other countries into bankruptcy. At 3 o’clock^the A scenario in which they first push many others into bankruptcy and recession, which will likely backfire on them as well.

Italy and Turkey are weak links

I read that Italy’s annual debt servicing costs rose by €10 billion as a result of higher interest rates.

Italy needs to raise 100 billion euros in new debt next year, in addition to 210 billion euros in maturing bonds that need to be refinanced.

The average interest rate on outstanding debt is about 2%. Today, the average yield on 10-year bonds is 4.4%. This means that replacing this financing will be very expensive.

In addition to all this, Italy’s budget deficit this year reaches 100 billion euros.

According to August data, the liquidity of the Italian public’s funds amounts to about $20 billion.

The Italian government recently revised its deficit estimate upward to 5.5% of GDP. In 2024, forecasts expect it to reach 4.5%. This is a far cry from the eurozone’s assumed limit of 3%.

Italy’s credit rating could be under further pressure. Standard & Poor’s recently left its BBB rating unchanged, keeping Italy two notches above missing investment grade.

According to Bloomberg, the risk of Moody’s rating Italy’s creditworthiness in the junk category on November 17 (today) is not insignificant… In this case, Greece will overtake Italy.

be seen: Moody’s is in trouble over a junk question in Italy, says a former Standard & Poor’s veteran

The other weak link in the international system is Türkiye. Inflation is hovering above 60% and the pound is going from lower to lower.

If the United States drains the international system of available dollars over the next 12 months, Turkey will be one of the countries that will “run out” first. Problems are also emerging in Egypt due to the rise in global food prices.

Greece…

On the other hand, the fact is that the Greek economy continues to show particularly positive economic indicators compared to the EU average.

This may be unprecedented, but it is real.

The question is the scale of shocks that could create disruptions such as those necessitated by international developments and what effects they could have on Greece.

Perhaps it would be better for the government not to rush through Christmas benefits, but to keep the surpluses for a “cushion”…

2) Tax bill, freelancer

Dear Mr. Stopa,

I’ve been reading you for years and almost agree with your views. But regarding the new draft tax law, it would be good to have more discretion and not put all self-employed and self-employed people in the same category of tax evaders. Personally, I have been a self-employed scientist for ten years. What the government describes has nothing to do with the reality of much of my industry. I am sending you this email to approve the approach of the accountant whose letter you posted.

I’m trying to figure out whether we live in a free economy or not. Since when does someone determine how much income a free professional should receive, otherwise it is better to close him? Is he or not free to choose the number of hours he will work and the amount of profit he will make in his work? There are countless cases of women who keep their jobs just to pay insurance contributions, because they have obligations to children, parents and home, and their husband or even parents pay for their living expenses. Since when is this banned? Not to mention the zero rights that a pregnant, breastfeeding or new self-employed mother has in relation to the corresponding government employee!!!

There are plenty of other freelancers of my generation who have earned degrees, masters, and doctorates, and continue to study and specialize while maintaining a low-key office, practice, and business activity. These professionals began their professional activity in the midst of the crisis. They have chosen to invest their family’s financial resources and personal work in their home country. They did not travel abroad while eligible. Until today they have worked without profits, paying their business expenses, paying unfair taxes, living with the help of their parents, and hoping that now that the economy is better, maybe they will be vindicated for their choice to stay. And investment in Greece. Because until today, pre-payment of taxes and demonstration fees has been a punishment and a deterrent to freelancers. Will these relatively young but reputable and consistent professionals pay their dues to the rest of these super-profitables?

From where and to where does someone who does not make profits after 5 years not work in the job he chose? That is, his colleague who provides low-quality products and services, devalues ​​his business with low prices, engages in unfair competition with illegal PR and advertising and ultimately achieves greater profit for the same business????

We live in Greece and we all know that the general public finds it difficult to convince and choose professionals correctly and according to quality standards. Especially during the crisis years, everyone has learned to choose only on the basis of low price. We all know that in order to recognize the quality of services and products, it takes a long time, especially in Greece longer than usual. The professional who works patiently and waits for recognition for his work is a failure????

Since the 2010 bankruptcy we suddenly have an economy so developed that all freelancers are expected to make a profit??? Because I realize that we are all still suffering from the consequences of bankruptcy, Covid, the war in Ukraine and now in Israel. I did not notice any jumps in growth that would justify such expectations.

Regarding the staff that a professional employs, you must realize that the way the market is shaped, the requirements have increased and the professional may hire for reasons of competition, in order to be able to exist as a professional and serve his clients effectively. The employee is paid a wage even if he himself does not achieve the corresponding profits. There should be no impression if an employee is paid less than his or her employee in today’s conditions.

Because they cannot conduct effective checks and catch real tax evaders, and because they want to pay benefits and increase salaries and pensions, this does not mean that they should destroy a large part of the professionals who so far only fight and provide only for the working class. Greek state and society. It’s completely unfair and sends the wrong message. If this generation becomes the scapegoat again, the only message that will be sent is that any competent, skilled, honest scientist or professional who wants to advance should go abroad or should do everything in their power to enter the public sector to have a hope of staying in Greece.

I will ask again do we or do we not have a free market??????

I’m sorry for the strong tone but the situation has arisen.

Please do not publish my data.

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