What would happen if Ukraine seized the Kursk nuclear power plant?

From the first moment of the Ukrainian invasion of the region Kursk On August 6, there was much discussion about the possible objectives of this operation.

A simple glance at the map is enough to raise the question of whether the capture of one of the goals of the Ukrainian invasion Kursk Nuclear Power PlantWho is fair? 60 km from the border.

Yes Russian Ministry of Defense Ukraine on Saturday (17/08) accused Moscow of planning to attack the Kursk nuclear power plant and blamed the “provocation” on Moscow. The ministry said that Russia will respond harshly in the event of such an attack.Which he said would pollute a large area around the station.

The Russian side takes this scenario seriously, as they pointed out in their article. The Moscow Times They list a number of ways in which this can be done.

As the article points out, RosatomRussia’s state-owned nuclear power company has started withdraws its employees from the stationWhile Russian military forces are rushing to dig trenches around it.

The possibility of simply seizing a nuclear power plant during war nightmare scenario For any nuclear safety professional. However, after Russia occupied the nuclear power plant for about two and a half years Zaporizhia and occupy its exclusion zone Chernobyl And the research reactor in Sevastopol During the occupation of Crimea in 2014, such scenarios became more likely.

Without knowing how events will develop, there are some data that emerge from the Environment Agency’s analysis. BellonaBased in Norway, it deals with nuclear issues, as well as recommendations from International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)These are as follows: If nuclear power plants find themselves at the center of military operations, Every effort should be made to avoid direct attack with heavy weapons. The defending side may not deploy troops at nuclear power plants, which would turn them into military targets. If a nuclear power plant is surrounded, it is better to surrender through negotiations than to attack it or use it as a base for attacks.

Hypothetical scenarios for Ukraine’s “occupation” of the nuclear power plant

Taking the above principles into account, there are some hypothetical plans that Ukraine could make regarding the Kursk NPP as the operation continues in Russia. These scenarios have repeatedly appeared in the media and it makes sense to study them in detail.

theory is that ukraine can do it To try to connect the Kursk nuclear power plant to its own power system. According to the author of the Moscow Times article, this is the least likely target. If the plant is captured, the safest course of action for its operators is to put all reactors into cold shutdown mode, which would stop power generation.

secondlyDirecting energy to Ukraine will require Running a reliable infrastructureSubstations and high-voltage lines. Two power transmission lines – one 330 kV and the other 750 kV – connect the Kursk NPP to the Ukrainian-controlled Sunzha region and head to Sumy, Ukraine. However, The condition in which these lines are found is questionable, Especially on the Ukrainian side, given the intense Russian bombing of the country’s energy infrastructure.

Third, the power systems of Russia and Ukraine are no longer connected or synchronized.Since Ukraine joined the European energy system during the first months of the war in 2022, connecting an energy facility on Russian territory to the Ukrainian energy system will require not only Operational infrastructure on both sides of the frontBut it is also possible to install additional equipment to integrate part of the Russian energy infrastructure into the Ukrainian system. Such a thing is unlikely to be implemented in war conditions in the combat zone.

If we look at the Kursk nuclear power plant in the long term, we have to take into account that Two RBMK reactors – Units 3 and 4 – are nearing the end of their 45-year operating life and are expected to be shut down in the next four to six years. Rosatom, Russia’s state nuclear energy company, is carrying out modernization projects to extend their operations for another five years, but these efforts It may be interrupted due to the Ukrainian operation.

To replace these reactor units, Rosatom is building the Kursk NPP-2, equipped with two power units. VVER-TOINear the existing Kursk nuclear power plant. The first of these units is expected to start operating early next year, unless the war causes a delay. Such a delay would certainly cause problems for Rosatom, given the central role this project plays in the company’s image, but it would not give Ukraine a special advantage.

Some speculate that too. Ukraine is trying to deprive Russia of a vital source of energy. – It would be better if the plant were shut down safely, rather than through a nuclear accident, which would be catastrophic, at least for the region. But the evidence so far does not support this hypothesis.

One would like to believe that if such a plan existed, it would not involve destroying the facility through a nuclear accident, but disabling it through standard procedures.

The role of the Kursk station in Russia’s energy supply

Kursk Nuclear Power Plant is Main source of energy In the area of ​​the same name, where it provides nearly 90% of its total generating capacity. In 2023, it produced 19.1 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity (before the second unit was shut down in January), an amount that far exceeds the 8.9 billion kilowatt-hours consumed by local residents monthly.

As a result, most of the electricity produced by the plant is fed to neighboring regions and to Russia’s unified power system. The loss of the plant could indeed cause energy problems in the Kursk region itself, especially since the plant operates The central distribution center in its power system.

However, the loss of the plant would not put pressure on neighboring regions, which could easily make up for the loss from other sources. To put things in perspective, in the unified power system of central Russia, which includes 18 regions around Moscow, the Kursk NPP accounts for only 2 GW of the total 50 GW, and It is currently the smallest nuclear power plant. Compared to the other three in this area of ​​the country – its stations Smolenskfor Novovoronezh And he has Kalinin.

Ukraine’s most likely target in Kursk

The most logical target for capturing the Kursk nuclear power plant would be and use it as a bargaining chip to exchange it with its nuclear power plant Zaporizhia In any future negotiations.

Given that the Ukrainian army is advancing to the Kursk region and strengthening its position by bringing up reserves and other defenses, Kyiv seems intent on holding on to its gains. – Perhaps until the end of the war and the start of negotiations. The presence of a nuclear power plant in the occupied territories would significantly enhance its negotiating power and confirm the strategic nature of this process.

However, as the Moscow Times columnist points out, the important thing is not to see any attack or attempt to seize the Kursk nuclear power plant because there is no safe way to do so. Any such attempt carries the risk of a nuclear or radiological accident, not to mention the potential damage to the political support Ukraine enjoys from its Western allies.